Projected Income Statement: Li Auto Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: Li Auto Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -21,856 -28,856 -94,540 -104,380 -91,506 -72,395 -84,095 -91,863
Change - -32.03% -227.63% -10.41% 12.33% 20.89% -16.16% -9.24%
Announcement Date 25/02/22 27/02/23 26/02/24 14/03/25 12/03/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Li Auto Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 3,445 5,128 2,656 7,730 4,206 6,047 6,453 6,210
Change - 48.87% -48.2% 191.03% -45.6% 43.78% 6.73% -3.78%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 4,896 2,252 44,190 8,203 -12,817 10,050 9,013 12,626
Change - -53.99% 1,861.94% -81.44% -256.24% 178.41% -10.32% 40.09%
Announcement Date 25/02/22 27/02/23 26/02/24 14/03/25 12/03/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Li Auto Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) -1.58% -5.39% 7.44% 6.98% 3.66% 3.71% 6.58% 7.35%
EBIT Margin (%) -3.77% -8.07% 5.98% 4.86% -0.46% -0.8% 3.7% 4.34%
EBT Margin (%) -0.57% -4.77% 8.44% 6.45% 1.15% 0.99% 4.43% 5.67%
Net margin (%) -1.19% -4.44% 9.45% 5.56% 1% 1.39% 4.11% 4.68%
FCF margin (%) 18.13% 4.97% 35.68% 5.68% -11.41% 7.85% 5.84% 7.41%
FCF / Net Income (%) -1,523.02% -111.93% 377.56% 102.13% -1,139.85% 562.97% 142.26% 158.31%

Profitability

        
ROA -0.65% -2.71% 10.18% 6.97% 1.5% 1.8% 4.32% 5%
ROE -0.91% -4.68% 22.29% 16.27% 3.32% 3.17% 8.21% 10.4%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 12.75% 11.32% 2.14% 5.35% 3.74% 4.72% 4.18% 3.64%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) -806.84% -210.07% 28.83% 76.71% 102.23% 127.31% 63.61% 49.55%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 70.36% 227.67% 6.01% 94.23% -32.81% 60.16% 71.6% 49.18%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 4.5 3.802 47.93 14.97 -8.038 10.69 13.56 7.565
Change - -15.52% 1,160.68% -68.77% -153.71% 232.94% 26.89% -44.21%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 42.65 46.22 60.76 66.57 67.78 71.63 79.79 83.28
Change - 8.35% 31.46% 9.57% 1.82% 5.68% 11.39% 4.37%
EPS 1 -0.35 -2.07 11.1 7.58 1.08 0.6457 5.029 6.751
Change - -491.43% 636.23% -31.71% -85.75% -40.22% 678.83% 34.26%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,016,174 975,752 1,002,213 997,503 1,009,319 1,020,872 1,020,872 1,020,872
Announcement Date 25/02/22 27/02/23 26/02/24 14/03/25 12/03/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio 195x 25.1x
PBR 1.76x 1.58x
EV / Sales 0.44x 0.29x
Yield - -

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
27
Last Close Price
125.97CNY
Average target price
143.92CNY
Spread / Average Target
+14.25%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. LI Stock
  4. Financials Li Auto Inc.