Financials Li Auto Inc.

Equities

LI

US50202M1027

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

Market Closed - Nasdaq Other stock markets 21:00:00 06/09/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
18.31 ^USD	-2.92%		-5.91%	-51.08%

09-05	Stocks at Chinese Car Dealerships Decline in August	MT
09-04	Citigroup Downgrades Li Auto to Neutral From Buy	MT

Projected Income Statement: Li Auto Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	284.4	9,457	27,010	45,287	123,851	144,985	196,253	239,800
Change	-	3,225.49%	185.62%	67.67%	173.48%	17.06%	35.36%	22.19%
EBITDA ¹	-	-348.3	-426.9	-2,441	9,212	7,552	13,343	18,933
Change	-	-	22.56%	471.77%	-	-18.01%	76.67%	41.9%
EBIT ¹	-	-669.3	-1,017	-3,655	7,407	5,015	10,742	16,053
Change	-	-	51.99%	259.27%	-	-32.3%	114.21%	49.44%
Interest Paid ¹	-	-66.92	-63.24	-106.3	-86.25	-135.6	-105	-96.71
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-188.9	-152.8	-2,159	10,452	8,146	14,011	19,940
Change	-	-	-19.09%	1,313.08%	-	-22.06%	72%	42.31%
Net income ¹	-	-792	-321.5	-2,012	11,704	7,166	12,449	17,663
Change	-	-	-59.41%	525.97%	-	-38.77%	73.72%	41.89%
Announcement Date	10/07/20	25/02/21	25/02/22	27/02/23	26/02/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2
Net sales ¹	1,947	2,511	4,147	3,575	5,039	7,775	10,620	9,562	8,733	9,342	17,650	18,787	28,653	34,679	41,732	25,634	31,678	41,691	47,094	33,863	43,031	52,268	59,017	51,215	58,891
Change	-	28.94%	65.16%	-13.79%	40.94%	54.3%	36.59%	-9.97%	-8.67%	6.98%	88.92%	6.44%	52.51%	21.03%	20.34%	-38.58%	23.58%	31.61%	12.96%	-28.09%	27.07%	21.46%	12.91%	-13.22%	14.99%
EBITDA ¹	-126.1	-97.8	-	-	-407.8	-	-	-	-774.9	-1,750	295	763.7	2,040	-	-	-	-	3,503	4,384	1,311	2,576	5,350	7,543	2,295	5,706
Change	-	-22.43%	-100%	-	-	-100%	-	-	-	125.82%	-	158.91%	167.06%	-100%	-	-	-	-	25.14%	-70.1%	96.49%	107.67%	41%	-69.58%	148.64%
EBIT ¹	-145.9	-180	-78.94	-407.7	-535.9	-97.8	24.1	-413.1	-978.5	-2,130	-133.6	405.2	1,626	2,339	3,036	-584.9	468	2,284	2,672	330.5	1,466	3,511	5,548	134.4	3,381
Change	-	23.34%	-56.13%	416.47%	31.46%	-81.75%	-	-	136.87%	117.66%	-93.73%	-	301.25%	43.88%	29.8%	-	-	388.05%	16.99%	-87.63%	343.48%	139.55%	58.01%	-97.58%	2,415.16%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-	-	-	-	-21.3	-19.24	-9.685	-10.14	-	-36.64	-38.39	-32.44	-28.44	-	-13.68	-28.6	-43.23	-43.23	-43.23	-	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	84.7	-334	-202.3	100.7	282.8	19.36	-645.3	-1,702	168.5	972.8	2,352	2,951	4,176	675.6	1,178	2,730	2,745	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-39.45%	-	180.85%	-93.15%	-	163.75%	-	477.44%	141.78%	25.47%	41.51%	-83.82%	74.38%	131.71%	0.55%	-100%	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-	-	107.5	-360	-235.5	-21.51	295.5	-10.87	-618	-1,640	256.9	929.7	2,293	2,823	5,658	592.6	1,103	2,544	2,267	988	1,221	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-34.58%	-90.87%	-	-	5,587.15%	165.44%	-	261.83%	146.66%	23.12%	100.41%	-89.53%	86.07%	130.72%	-10.89%	-56.42%	23.58%	-100%	-	-	-
Announcement Date	17/09/21	13/11/20	25/02/21	26/05/21	30/08/21	29/11/21	25/02/22	10/05/22	15/08/22	09/12/22	27/02/23	10/05/23	08/08/23	09/11/23	26/02/24	20/05/24	28/08/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: Li Auto Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-27,761	-21,856	-28,856	-94,540	-89,021	-102,032	-120,313
Change	-	-	-178.73%	-232.03%	-427.63%	-194.16%	-214.62%	-217.92%
Announcement Date	10/07/20	25/02/21	25/02/22	27/02/23	26/02/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Li Auto Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CAPEX ¹	675.2	3,445	5,128	2,656	9,737	10,202	10,542
Change	-	410.17%	48.87%	-48.2%	266.58%	4.78%	3.34%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	2,465	4,896	2,252	44,190	5,228	15,130	21,952
Change	-	98.6%	-53.99%	1,861.94%	-88.17%	189.4%	45.09%
Announcement Date	25/02/21	25/02/22	27/02/23	26/02/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Li Auto Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	-	-3.68%	-1.58%	-5.39%	7.44%	5.21%	6.8%	7.9%
EBIT Margin (%)	-	-7.08%	-3.77%	-8.07%	5.98%	3.46%	5.47%	6.69%
EBT Margin (%)	-	-2%	-0.57%	-4.77%	8.44%	5.62%	7.14%	8.32%
Net margin (%)	-	-8.37%	-1.19%	-4.44%	9.45%	4.94%	6.34%	7.37%
FCF margin (%)	-	26.07%	18.13%	4.97%	35.68%	3.61%	7.71%	9.15%
FCF / Net Income (%)	-	-311.26%	-1,523.02%	-111.93%	377.56%	72.95%	121.54%	124.28%
Profitability
ROA	-	-3.45%	-0.65%	-2.71%	10.18%	4.28%	6.37%	7.51%
ROE	-	-4.61%	-0.91%	-4.68%	22.29%	12.07%	16.92%	19.31%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Debt / Free cash flow	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	-	7.14%	12.75%	11.32%	2.14%	6.72%	5.2%	4.4%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	-	-193.83%	-806.84%	-210.07%	28.83%	128.92%	76.46%	55.68%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	-	27.39%	70.36%	227.67%	6.01%	186.24%	67.43%	48.02%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	-	3.609	4.5	3.802	47.93	7.106	16.22	18.07
Change	-	-	24.69%	-15.52%	1,160.68%	-85.17%	128.29%	11.4%
Dividend per Share ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Book Value Per Share ¹	-	-	-	-	60.76	66.35	78.59	95.81
Change	-	-	-	-	-	9.21%	18.44%	21.92%
EPS ¹	-12.74	-1.82	-0.35	-2.07	11.1	6.667	9.865	13.41
Change	-	-85.72%	-80.77%	491.43%	-636.23%	-39.93%	47.96%	35.91%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	-	850,594	1,016,174	975,752	1,002,213	1,061,010	1,061,010	1,061,010
Announcement Date	10/07/20	25/02/21	25/02/22	27/02/23	26/02/24	-	-	-