Revenue rose 4.7% on a like-for-like basis (excluding fuel). As has often been the case in recent years, food was the main driver, although other segments—particularly clothing and everyday consumer goods—benefited from sunny weather. The group also inadvertently benefited from disruptions caused by a major cyberattack on its competitor Marks & Spencer.
Despite everything, the stock is exactly where it was ten years ago. So how can the British company still attract shareholders? It is true that the solid dividend gives it a high-yield stock status. It was only significantly reduced in 2020, in the very unusual context of the pandemic. The cash generated by operations, the strength of its balance sheet and the recurring income statement figures suggest that dividends can continue to be paid without any significant pressure.
Over the past 10 years, Sainsbury's revenue has grown from £23.5bn to £33.1bn and it has gained market share. The company's positioning is also astute, with non-food products accounting for just 25% of revenue – which is still significantly higher than at Tesco. This enables Sainsbury's to focus on what has really been working in recent years: food.
However, pressure on margins, changing macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical and inflationary climates have brought a great deal of uncertainty. But the main cause for concern remains, and will undoubtedly remain, the competitive situation, which is starting to become frankly saturated. Sainsbury's generates all of its revenue in the UK and is battling aggressive discounters (Aldi, Lidl), Marks & Spencer, and, above all, Tesco (the market leader) and Asda (the third-largest retailer, formerly owned by Walmart and unlisted), which launched an intense price war at the beginning of the year at the expense of margins in order to catch up with its peers.
Despite everything, trading at a P/E multiple of less than 15x for this year and 13x for 2026, the stock's discount is probably a little high. Optimists will point out that the financial situation is optimal, that the loyalty program is making good progress, that Sainsbury's has consistently outperformed the market in recent quarters and gained market share across all its sales channels (supermarkets, convenience stores, online sales). They will also point to the consistency of the initiatives, such as the Nectar prices, which cover more than 9,000 low-priced items, the alignment of some products with Aldi's prices, the desire to develop own-brand premium products, and the acquisition of new supermarket sites from Homebase and Co-op.
Pessimists and those who are indifferent seem to be winning the day on this quality issue for now. Unfortunately, the future remains too uncertain, as evidenced by the company's modest outlook. Competition, concentration in the domestic market, lack of support for growth in the food business, and the overall impact of economic, political, and commercial developments are limiting positive projections.