Impact on business and growth
Goldman Sachs anticipates a 2% to 3% drop in S&P 500 earnings per share due to tariffs.
Barclays estimates a negative impact of 2.8% on S&P 500 profits, particularly in the raw materials and consumer discretionary sectors.
Citigroup predicts a squeeze of up to 250 basis points on S&P 500 profit margins in the event of widespread tax hikes.
Industries most at risk
Automotive: The sector could bear an additional cost of $40 billion a year, increasing the average price of a car by 7%. General Motors could be particularly hard hit.
Metals: European steelmakers operating in the U.S., such as ArcelorMittal, could bear the brunt of these restrictions.
Spirits: Constellation Brands, producer of Mexican Corona beer, could see its earnings per share fall from $3 to $3.75 in 2026.
Household appliances: Whirlpool could be impacted by higher costs on its products from Mexico.
Macroeconomic consequences
Inflation: Barclays estimates that these tariffs could increase the consumer price index by 35 to 40 basis points over one year.
Dollar: Rising inflation could strengthen the greenback, putting further pressure on US exporters.
Donald Trump's final decision on whether to maintain or adjust the tariffs will be closely scrutinized by investors and major companies.
