PHP’s sweetened offer - its third attempt - would see Assura shareholders receive 0.3865 new PHP shares, 12.5p in cash, and a 0.84p special dividend for each share held. The total consideration values Assura shares at 53.3p apiece, surpassing the best and final KKR-Stonepeak offer of 52.1p per share, which includes 50.42p in cash and the retention of April and July dividend payments.
 
Initially, Assura had pushed back against PHP, citing concerns over financing, execution, and asset quality. However, the company has now acknowledged that the revised bid addresses some of these issues. Market response was muted, with PHP shares slipping 3% while Assura edged 0.5% higher.
 
Private equity offer fails to convince
 
Despite the apparent cash advantage in the KKR-Stonepeak proposal, analysts remain unconvinced. Panmure Liberum’s Bjorn Zietsman characterised the PHP offer as “structurally superior,” highlighting the long-term benefits of a 48% stake in a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) with sector dominance, cost synergies, and growth prospects. In contrast, he described the private equity offer as a short-term exit strategy at a market low.
 
Shore Capital echoed this sentiment, stressing the strategic merits of remaining a listed entity and the upside from rent growth and development opportunities. Analyst Andrew Saunders argued that a merger with PHP would create a formidable force in the healthcare property sector.
 
Final offers on the table
 
KKR and Stonepeak’s £1.7 billion cash bid - confirmed as final - offered a 6.5% premium to Assura’s share price on 10 June. Nonetheless, the board has chosen to recommend PHP’s equity-led deal. A delisting from the London and Johannesburg stock exchanges is expected as part of the acquisition process.
 
While the private equity bid had briefly lifted Assura shares to a two-year high, the market and analysts appear to be aligning with PHP’s vision of long-term value creation in the healthcare property landscape.