Projected Income Statement: Aramco

Forecast Balance Sheet: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 184,269 -114,118 -93,169 89,462 68,511 41,996 44,528 82,703
Change - -161.93% 18.36% 196.02% -23.42% -38.7% 6.03% 85.73%
Announcement Date 21/03/22 13/03/23 10/03/24 04/03/25 10/03/26 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 119,645 141,161 158,308 188,890 190,444 197,252 187,485 177,787
Change - 17.98% 12.15% 19.32% 0.82% 3.57% -4.95% -5.17%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 402,956 556,991 379,506 319,998 320,354 385,553 369,896 393,763
Change - 38.23% -31.86% -15.68% 0.11% 20.35% -4.06% 6.45%
Announcement Date 21/03/22 13/03/23 10/03/24 04/03/25 10/03/26 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 57.1% 54.52% 52% 48.72% 47.86% 51.65% 53.53% 55.52%
EBIT Margin (%) 51.4% 50.48% 46.77% 43% 42.29% 46.36% 48.33% 50.14%
EBT Margin (%) 51.24% 50.87% 47.84% 43.4% 42.06% 46.38% 48.15% 49.52%
Net margin (%) 26.32% 26.35% 24.39% 21.86% 20.83% 24.79% 24.54% 25.15%
FCF margin (%) 26.83% 24.58% 20.44% 17.76% 19.17% 19.46% 20.4% 22.52%
FCF / Net Income (%) 101.96% 93.26% 83.82% 81.24% 92.04% 78.51% 83.1% 89.56%

Profitability

        
ROA 19.39% 25.66% 18.22% 16.07% 13.99% 16.86% 15.33% 15.17%
ROE 37.56% 46.62% 30.35% 26.32% 23.59% 29.51% 26.07% 25.2%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.21x - - 0.1x 0.09x 0.04x 0.05x 0.09x
Debt / Free cash flow 0.46x - - 0.28x 0.21x 0.11x 0.12x 0.21x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.97% 6.23% 8.53% 10.48% 11.4% 9.96% 10.34% 10.17%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 13.95% 11.42% 16.4% 21.52% 23.81% 19.27% 19.31% 18.32%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 29.69% 25.34% 41.71% 59.03% 59.45% 51.16% 50.69% 45.15%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.16 2.886 2.223 2.104 2.112 2.494 2.399 2.374
Change - 33.58% -22.98% -5.36% 0.38% 18.12% -3.83% -1.02%
Dividend per Share 1 1.157 1.191 1.695 1.776 1.325 1.399 1.538 1.558
Change - 2.93% 42.3% 4.78% -25.39% 5.56% 9.96% 1.34%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.602 5.99 6.343 6.028 6.168 6.955 7.147 7.449
Change - 30.15% 5.9% -4.96% 2.32% 12.75% 2.77% 4.22%
EPS 1 1.636 2.473 1.87 1.63 1.44 2.035 1.847 1.836
Change - 51.11% -24.38% -12.83% -11.66% 41.32% -9.22% -0.6%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 241,858,445 241,893,399 241,907,556 241,948,700 241,854,700 241,907,400 241,907,400 241,907,400
Announcement Date 21/03/22 13/03/23 10/03/24 04/03/25 10/03/26 - - -
1SAR
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio 13.6x 15x
PBR 3.98x 3.88x
EV / Sales 3.4x 3.72x
Yield 5.05% 5.55%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
27.70SAR
Average target price
30.08SAR
Spread / Average Target
+8.59%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise