Wall Street ends lower, but once again, the gaps don't go very far when the bullish rally comes to a halt.

The 3 US indices ended down -0.4%, with a wide range of scores: to put it simply, the Dow Jones lost -0.2%, the S&P500 -0.4% (weighed down by the oil sector) and the Nasdaq -0.6% (weighed down by Nvidia -2.3%, Palo Alto and Netflix -1.9%, Intel -1.6% and AMD -1.3%).
It should be noted that the Nasdaq-100 returned to its highs of 16,000pts at around 3:45pm, before slipping back into the red.
The Russell-200 also closed slightly down at -0.2%.

The 'VIX' eased back slightly, by +0.7% to 12.95, which does not deny the 'full risk on' climate.
Of note - and this is the 'fact of the day'- is the -4% drop in oil prices in 'capitulation' mode (-10% since the end of November): oil falls below $70 for the first time since the beginning of July, to around $69.25, the lowest closing price since June 28... and natural gas also plunges -6%.

Investors had initially been reassured by ADP figures: according to its latest survey, the US private sector created only 103.000 jobs in November, well below expectations.

This indicator, which comes two days before the much-anticipated official statistics from the Department of Labor - the 'NFP' - triggered a further fall in bond yields.

At less than 4.12%, the yield on US ten-year paper erased -5Pts and returned to its lowest level since the end of August.

Investors also took note of a +0.5% upward revision in non-farm productivity to 5.2% in the third quarter (perfect alignment with GDP), following a preliminary estimate of 4.7%.

Finally, the US trade deficit widened to $64.3 billion in October, compared with $61.2 billion the previous month... it's been a long time since the accumulation of US deficits disturbed Wall Street.

Investors are still betting on a forthcoming rate cut in the US, even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors on Friday that there was still a long way to go before inflation would be brought down to around 2%.
For the time being, markets are counting on a 55% probability of a Fed rate cut in March, according to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer... and an easing as early as January garners 15% of votes.

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