FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) - The U.S. strike on Iran has led to caution on the stock exchanges. So far, however, major setbacks have not materialized. Only the oil price has reacted sharply. The initial trading of shares in auto parts retailer AUTODOC is scheduled for Wednesday.
June 23, 2025. FRANKFURT (Borse Frankfurt). The Middle East conflict continues to dominate the markets, especially after the U.S. military intervention over the weekend. "The fate of the financial markets depends on the flow of news," explains Helaba analyst Ralf Umlauf. "History will show whether the U.S. entry into the conflict has made the world safer or more dangerous," comments analyst Andreas da Graça of LBBW. Now, everything hinges on Iran's response and the possible U.S. counter-reaction. "That's why investors are likely to keep a very close watch on the Middle East this week."
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The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend is mainly impacting oil prices, while equity markets are reacting fairly calmly. "From a purely financial market perspective, it was probably helpful that market participants had a full day to reflect on the situation," notes Ulrich Stephan of Deutsche Bank. As a result, panic reactions have been avoided. "Apparently, market participants currently believe that the conflict will remain regionally contained."
Limited Losses
The DAX stood at 23,210 points on Monday morning, down from 23,350 at Friday's close--well below the all-time high of 24,479 points reached in early June. The price for a barrel of Brent crude temporarily climbed above $81, its highest since January. It is currently somewhat lower at $78.28. The background is concern that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, a sea passage extremely important for oil and liquefied gas.
"Complacency Raises Skepticism"
The gold price--traditionally a "safe haven"--remains at $3,355 per ounce, below the all-time high of nearly $3,500, as does Bitcoin, currently just under $102,000. "The biggest impacts so far are visible in the energy markets," explains portfolio manager Max Hanisch of Weber Bank. However, this channel transmits the consequences of the conflict beyond directly affected regions worldwide: in the form of higher prices for gasoline and jet fuel, and thus rising inflation. "Given the numerous--mostly negative--effects of threatened tariffs and the many other global risk factors, the current complacency in the markets makes us increasingly skeptical."
"Negative Surprises from U.S. Tariff Policy Possible at Any Time"
Regardless of current events, asset manager DWS expects global equities to yield total returns of about six percent over the next twelve months. Due to high price gains, however, German stocks are now significantly more highly valued than most other European exchanges. "We expect moderate DAX price potential through June 2026: 25,600 points," says fund manager Tobias Rommel. Prospects for the U.S. have somewhat improved again. "However, this could change quickly in the event of further negative surprises from U.S. tariff policy," Rommel adds. The development of the tech sector remains crucial. He sees the S&P 500 at 6,100 points by June 2026.
Trading Debut for AUTODOC SE
The Berlin-based auto parts platform operator, AUTODOC, will go public on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Beforehand, the shares will be privately placed with a subscription range between 58 and 61 euros. If the offering is fully exercised, including over-allotment, this could result in a market capitalization of up to 2.4 billion euros. The free float would then be 19 percent.
More at handelsblatt.de
Key Economic and Business Data
Monday, June 23
9:00 a.m.: Implementation of index adjustments for MDAX and SDAX. From today, IONOS replaces Jenoptik in the MDAX, and Mutares and Nagarro join the SDAX.
10:00 a.m.: Eurozone: June Purchasing Managers' Index.
Tuesday, June 24
10:00 a.m.: Germany: June ifo Business Climate Index. Commerzbank expects the ifo business climate to have risen again in June after five consecutive increases, from 87.5 to 88 points. This relatively small gain will further underscore the turnaround signal but also show that, due to higher U.S. tariffs and the many structural problems facing the German economy, a strong upswing is not to be expected.
Thursday, June 26
2:30 p.m.: USA: May durable goods orders. According to DekaBank, orders are being boosted by the civil aircraft sector. They expect an increase of 8.5 percent compared to April.
Friday, June 27
2:30 p.m.: USA: May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, excluding food and energy. According to Commerzbank, the Fed's preferred inflation measure will show a slightly stronger year-on-year increase.
by: Anna-Maria Borse, June 23, 2025, © Deutsche Borse AG
(The content of this column is the sole responsibility of Deutsche Borse AG. The articles do not constitute an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets.)
