FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - September has so far failed to live up to its reputation as a weak stock market month. Despite all the prophecies of doom, the German stock market has been robust so far. After a small phase of weakness at the beginning of the month, the DAX has now recovered. However, the direction it will take remains uncertain.

The Dax owes its stability not least to the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. With its latest interest rate cut, the monetary authorities have met the markets' expectations. And as the central bank expects inflationary pressure to ease over the next two years, the chances of interest rates falling further are good. "We expect quarterly cuts of 25 basis points each until a level of around two percent is reached," predicts Joachim Schallmayer, Head of Capital Markets & Investment Strategy at DekaBank.

This slow but continuous path of interest rate cuts will provide the banks with a steady monetary tailwind. "The further descent from the interest rate peak not only reduces the attractiveness of investments close to the money market," emphasizes capital market strategist Robert Halber from Baader Bank. "Above all, it stimulates the economic and thus fundamental upward forces of the stock markets in the long term."

This is all the more true as the US Federal Reserve is also likely to follow the ECB on its interest rate path in the coming week. The only uncertainty is the size of the first step. While a moderate 25 basis points was previously considered a given, media reports have recently fueled speculation of a major cut of 50 basis points.

However, should this actually happen, it would not only be positive, but would also confirm skeptical voices. "Similar to 2021, when we thought the Fed was late in the rate hike cycle, we are now stunned that it is also late in the rate cut cycle," says Stephen Auth, chief investment strategist at US asset manager Federated Hermes. 50 basis points would therefore be appropriate, but the US Federal Reserve will probably leave it at a small step. Of course, this does not change the favorable medium-term outlook, as the signs in the US also point to a further decline in interest rates. "It is highly likely that we are now entering an extended cycle of interest rate cuts," says Auth.

However, this does not yet mean a green light for the stock markets. After all, despite all the positive monetary policy guidelines, the economic policy framework should not be ignored. "There will only be clarity on this once the US election result, including the congressional majority, has been determined," according to an assessment by Landesbank Baden-Württemberg. "Until then, investors are likely to hold back on new purchases."

This is also reflected in the technical chart situation. Despite the recent stabilization, the DAX still faces the real test, as the pivotal point, according to technical analyst Marcel Mußler, is the "downward trend at 18,660 points". Only a break of this mark would change the situation for the better. "The consequence of this buy signal is that the DAX will then also attack the very top again and reach new highs," says Mußler, emphasizing the importance of the hurdle.

Despite the focus on German blue chips, it is worth taking a look at second-line stocks. This is because, unlike the major stocks, second-tier shares are available at low prices. "While the Dax is trading along its historical average with a price-earnings ratio of around 12, the MDax is valued more favorably at 13 than on 90 percent of trading days in the past 20 years," notes investment strategist Ulrich Stephan from Deutsche Bank. "If the German economy picks up speed again next year - as expected by the International Monetary Fund, for example - the turnover of MDax companies should increase significantly and share prices should benefit."/mf/gl/ngu

--- By Michael Fuchs, dpa-AFX ---