CAC40: up sharply, driven by Teleperformance and Legrand
With a succession of quarterly earnings releases, investors are regaining some appetite for risk, as they will also be hearing the conclusions of the Federal Reserve's meeting in a few hours' time.
Indeed, the day's main economic event will take place after the close of European markets, with the publication at 8:00 pm of the Fed's monetary policy statement following two days of discussions.
The central bank is not expected to change its key rates or make any spectacular announcements, but investors' attention will be focused on the signs pointing to further rate cuts, given that inflation in the USA is now approaching its 2% target.
"Jay Powell is expected (...) to confirm the high probability of the start of a monetary easing cycle in September, which the market has already taken for granted", predicts Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer, the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in the autumn is now estimated at over 87%.
While awaiting the Fed's verdict, the Bank of Japan overnight raised its key rate to 0.25%, continuing the process of normalizing its monetary policy after years of ultra-accommodative approach.
For Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, this decision should be interpreted as a 'sign of confidence and a message that the economy is now in a sufficiently solid situation'.
In China, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 50.2 in July, from 50.5 in June, which could call for further measures to support activity from Beijing.
The latest inflation figures for the eurozone, due at 11:00 a.m., should confirm the deceleration in price rises seen for almost two years now.
The consumer price index for July is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.4% year-on-year. Core inflation is expected to have fallen from 2.9% to 2.8% year-on-year.
In the US, investors will be watching the monthly ADP private employment survey at 2:15pm, which will provide valuable information on the health of the labor market two days ahead of the official employment figures.
Calm is also prevailing on the foreign exchange market, where the euro, by climbing back above 1.0820, is nevertheless managing to regain some ground against the dollar.
Oil prices - so far unaffected by the resurgence of tension in the Middle East - are rallying ahead of the release, this afternoon, of weekly crude inventories in the United States. Brent crude is now trading at $80.2 a barrel (+1.4%).
In French company news, Teleperformance last night reported sales of €5076m for the first half of 2024, up 28.2% on a reported basis (+1.7% on a pro forma basis). Adjusted net income was ME432, up 25.9%, with net free cash flow of ME448 (+45%).
For its part, Legrand this morning reported net income (group share) down 11.3% to ME577.6 for the first six months of 2024, with adjusted operating margin before acquisitions down 1.4 points to 20.8% of sales.
Danone reports recurring EPS up 2.6% to 1.80 euros for the first six months of 2024, with recurring operating margin improving by 45 basis points to almost 12.7%, driven by the strong rise in operating margin.
Finally, on the occasion of its half-yearly publication, Schneider Electric indicates that it is slightly raising its 2024 target to aim for organic growth in adjusted EBITA of between 9% and 13%, based on a margin assumption now of between around 18.1% and 18.3%.
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