The Paris stock market is trading at equilibrium this morning, around 7270 points, with the help of Vivendi (+1%) and STMicro (+0.9%).

According to strategists, the slowdown in US growth has become an obvious fact for investors to take into account, given the employment statistics published in recent weeks.

After an idyllic first half of the year for the markets, managers and analysts are now turning their anxious eyes to a second half that could hold more turbulence in store.

Signs of nervousness are also multiplying on Wall Street, where last week the Dow Jones interrupted a series of four consecutive weeks of gains by retreating by more than 2%.

The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, has officially entered correction territory, plunging more than 10% from its recent high of July 10.

The main question for market participants will now be whether the US economy is heading for a soft landing, or a possible slide back into recession.

With this in mind, investors will be keeping a close eye on the state of consumer spending, and in particular on US retail sales, due on Thursday, in order to reassure themselves about the economic situation.

US inflation figures, due on Wednesday, will also be watched with great interest.

While the second-quarter corporate earnings 'season' is now drawing to a close, Walmart's accounts - due on Thursday - will provide an insight into US consumer morale.

Above all, market participants are hoping that the recent bout of volatility will normalize, thanks to the anticipated dip in activity with the August vacations.

'It's not unusual for financial markets to experience a correction during the summer', point out the teams at Janus Henderson.

'With leverage and less liquid markets (in the summer period), a trend reversal (weak yen to strong yen) inevitably creates margin calls', they explain.

Those who are forced to sell their risk exposure are liquidating their positions, which explains the speed of the stock market correction', the managers add.

The VIX index of volatility on S&P 500 options, often referred to as the 'fear index', has temporarily reached a level not seen since early 2020 and the coronavirus crisis.

Although current volatility may be painful, a recovery from a period of excessive optimism could pave the way for a healthier market for the remainder of 2024", says Janus Henderson.

In a sign that economic growth is now being viewed with greater concern, traders are now anticipating a 50 basis point cut in Fed rates in September, with a probability of almost 50%.

"All this is probably premature, but it does call for a degree of caution in portfolio positioning", warns Florian Ielpo, Head of Macroeconomic Research at LOIM.

This morning, a barrel of Brent crude oil is trading at $80.3 in London (+1%), while the euro is perfectly stable against the greenback at $1.091/E.

In other French company news, Viel & Cie posted consolidated sales of €597.2 million for the first half of 2024, up 7.9% at variable exchange rates and 9.7% at constant exchange rates, year-on-year.

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