CAC40: fall below 7200 pts, government in the hot seat
Political uncertainty in France, combined with a gloomy economic outlook for the Old Continent, has prevented the CAC 40 from following the upward trajectory taken by Wall Street since the summer.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces his first major test on Monday, with the adoption of his Social Security funding bill, and as the RN has announced that it will vote for censure of the government.
While the current situation is not critical (yet), financial markets are certainly keeping a close eye on French political developments, and the absence of a budget, coupled with the fall of the government, would create uncertainty and a likely rise in the deficit in 2025 compared with current forecasts, pushing rates higher', warns Sylvain Bersinger, chief economist at Asterès.
The good news for France is that the OAT/Bund spread narrowed from 88 to 82 points on Friday, before S&P decided to maintain France's debt rating.
On the statistics front, down from 46 in October to 45.2 in November, the HCOB PMI index for manufacturing industry in the eurozone, produced by S&P Global, points to a more pronounced deterioration in the sector's economic situation last month.
In France, the PMI HCOB index for the French manufacturing industry, produced by S&P Global, continues to report a deterioration in the sector's economic situation, at the fastest pace since December 2023: it fell from 44.5 in October to 43.1 in November.
While Wall Street set a new series of records on Friday for the shortened 'Black Friday' session, some caution could be felt ahead of Friday's jobs report, when the S&P is already up over 26% this year.
Economists are expecting an average of 200,000 jobs to be created in November, following the 12,000 first-estimate for October.000 announced in the first estimate for October, and on an unemployment rate of 4.2% versus 4.1%.
The statistic - particularly closely followed by the Fed - should help it determine the timing of its next rate cuts, bearing in mind that a 25 basis point easing on December 18 is taken into account by 67% of investors, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
With this in mind, overly vigorous figures could be paradoxically unwelcome by investors worried that the central bank might curb its measures to support the economy.
In French company news, Atos announces that it has finalized the sale of its Worldgrid business to Alten for an enterprise value of 270 million euros, in accordance with the binding agreement reached on November 5 following exclusive negotiations initiated on June 11.
Carrefour reports that it has refinanced its two lines of credit, totalling 3.9 billion euros, combining them into a single line worth four billion, which incorporates two key performance indicators on decarbonization and food waste.
Finally, Saint-Gobain announces that on November 29 it finalized the sale of PAM Building, the subsidiary of Saint-Gobain PAM (pipe business) dedicated to the production of sanitary and storm drainage solutions for buildings.
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