By Kirk Maltais
--Soybeans for November delivery fell 1%, to $10.05 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, after the USDA's latest WASDE report showed only a slight drop-off in crop size versus last month's projections.
--Wheat for December delivery fell 0.7%, to $5.99 1/2 a bushel.
--Corn for December delivery fell 0.5%, to $4.16 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Curb Your Enthusiasm: With Friday's WASDE report showing yield figures higher than forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, while other changes to production and end stocks were generally minimal, traders were left with a report that didn't change the sentiment around the U.S. bumper crop. "There is nothing here that is going to move the needle," Charlie Sernatinger of Marex said in a note. "We are back to trading weather and harvest hedging."
Cost of Doing Business: The export duty for Russian wheat was raised by 41%, to $20 a metric ton, according to reports. Stress seen to Russia's grain crops underlie the decision, with SovEcon projecting Friday that the 2024 wheat forecast is seen at 81.5 million tons, down from 82.9 million tons from their last estimate. Driving the cut was what SovEcon calls "a significant decline in yields towards the end of the harvest in several Siberian regions." Constricted wheat exports out of Russia threaten to leave the supply of the wheat market at a deficit.
INSIGHT
Our Regularly Scheduled Program: Grain traders quickly reverted their interest away from the October WASDE report to their watch of weather conditions in the U.S., Brazil, and elsewhere, which has been a main focus for traders ahead of the USDA release. "This was largely a sleeper report for October," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. "The focus has already shifted back to trading weather--Brazil weather for corn and soybeans and Black Sea weather for wheat."
Hope Remains: The October WASDE report made the widely-expected small adjustments from previous outlooks published by the USDA. These adjustments may be even smaller, or non-existent, than anticipated by analysts, as the USDA awaits more data out of harvested fields before making meaningful changes to previous estimates. "Often times, the October report has minimal adjustments, as the USDA is waiting for additional harvest yield results," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. "Bigger tweaks start to emerge in November and December."
AHEAD
--The USDA will be closed in observance of the Indigenous Peoples Day/Columbus Day, reopening on Tuesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Tuesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-11-24 1532ET