By Paulo Trevisani
--Soybeans for March delivery rose 1.9%, to $10.10 1/2 a bushel, in light trade on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, but ended the year at a loss amid concerns of oversupply in 2025.
--Corn for March delivery rose 1.4%, to $4.58 1/2 a bushel.
--Wheat for March delivery rose 0.6%, to $5.51 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
2025 Challenges: Grain futures end the year with a bullish note, but face a challenging year.
Drier-than-expected weather forecast in Argentina offered support to soybean futures in the last session of 2024, AgResource said in a report. "Corn and wheat are followers of the bean/meal rally," the firm said. AgResource added that isolated showers and warming temperatures are forecast for Argentina and Brazil in the next 10 days. AgResource said that "a sharp fall in crop condition ratings is not expected." Soybeans face excessive supplies next year "as the Brazilian crop overwhelms world demand." Soybeans end 2024 just above $10 a bushel, compared to $13 a year ago.
Corn Headwinds: A rise in corn prices Tuesday could be short-lived, "with a lot of producer-owned grain expected to move after the start of the year," as farmers take advantage of current prices, RCM's Doug Bergman wrote. Corn ends 2024 slightly higher than a year earlier, while both soybeans and wheat are lower for the year.
INSIGHT
Weather Impact: Cold weather at the start of 2025 could be a problem for corn prices, StoneX's Arlan Suderman wrote.
He said that "bitter cold" is expected across much of the eastern U.S. next week.
The forecast is already boosting natural gas prices, which gives ethanol producers an opportunity to resell, at a profit, gas they bought earlier at lower prices. Ethanol output could suffer, as a result, curbing demand for corn, Suderman said. On the other hand, feed corn demand could rise with cold air, "unless it is so cold that animals quit eating."
Brazilian Soy Looms: A potentially large Brazilian crop limits the upside for soybean prices, Summit Commodity Brokerage's Tomm Pfitzenmaier wrote. On the other hand, concerns about dry weather in Argentina "may continue to be a supportive factor until the forecast improves," he said. Short-covering also seemed to be fueling prices. Pfitzenmaier added that soybean exports averaged 62.2 million bushels per week in the last four weeks, up from 41.5 million a year earlier, "as China continues to aggressively ship purchases of US soybeans ahead of President-elect Trump taking office in a few weeks."
AHEAD
--The USDA and CBOT are scheduled to be closed Wednesday in observance of the New Year, re-opening on Thursday.
--The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 11 a.m. EST Thursday.
--The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly grain crushings report at 3 p.m. EST Thursday.
--The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday.
Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-31-24 1505ET