By Kirk Maltais
-- Soybeans for March delivery fell 2.2% to $10.20 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, backtracking from the momentum from last week's WASDE report as Argentina is expected to get friendly weather for its crops this weekend.
-- Wheat for March delivery fell 1.7% to $5.37 1/2 a bushel.
-- Corn for March delivery fell 0.9% to $4.74 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Quenching Their Thirst: Forecasts of rainfall in Argentina over the upcoming weekend put pressure on CBOT grains throughout the day.
Isolated showers started Thursday and are expected to continue all weekend, said DTN in a note. These showers are expected to last through Sunday before turning drier on Monday.
The new rainfall is seen as a positive for the health of those crops, in turn meaning more competition for U.S. crops on the export market.
"We may be in for a period of consolidation especially if the forecasters are correct and rainfall returns in the drier areas of Argentina and Brazil," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note.
Peak Performance: Export sales figures from the USDA showed strength, but didn't translate to higher futures, with AgResource saying in a note that instead "a correction has unfolded."
Traders speculate much of the strength seen in recent weeks came from buyers attempting to load up on stocks ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Trump, in an effort to mitigate potential new tariffs against major buyers such as China and Mexico.
Top of the Pop: Last week's WASDE report from the USDA adjusted outlooks for stocks, production and yields lower for U.S. corn and soybeans, giving CBOT grain futures a boost.
But that rally may be done, analysts said, sending futures backtracking Thursday.
In a potential 2025 crop budget released this week, professors with the University of Illinois and Ohio State University pushed their outlook for average corn prices higher.
But they still don't make farmers profitable, and further price rises aren't likely, said Gary Schnitkey, a professor with the University of Illinois and one of the authors of the report. "If we have a normal or good year, I would expect lower prices," he said.
INSIGHT
Above Their Station: Export sales of U.S. corn and wheat for the week ended Jan. 9 exceeded the forecasts of analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week.
The USDA said Thursday that corn sales totaled 1.02 million metric tons across the 2024-25 and 2025-26 marketing years, while wheat sales were 521,900 tons across both marketing years. Analysts had forecast corn sales between 500,000 tons and 1 million tons, and wheat sales between 100,000 tons and 400,000 tons.
Soybean sales totaled 569,100 tons for the week, which fell on the lower side of analyst forecasts.
New Sales: The USDA reported new flash sales of U.S. soybeans to China with 132,000 metric tons sold for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year. It is the third time this week that the USDA has reported new flash sales to China, speculated to be a reaction by China ahead of President-elect Trump's inauguration next week.
The USDA also announced the sale of 135,000 metric tons of corn to Taiwan for delivery in 2024-25.
AHEAD
-- The CFTC is scheduled to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EST Friday.
-- The CBOT and USDA will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with both reopening on Tuesday.
-- The USDA is due to release its weekly grain export inspections report at 11 a.m. EST Tuesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-16-25 1600ET