By Kirk Maltais
-- Soybeans for November delivery fell 2.5% to $9.61 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with Monday's WASDE continuing to be a pressure point for soybeans as prices continue to find multi-year lows.
-- Wheat for September delivery fell 1.5% to $5.28 1/2 a bushel.
-- Corn for December delivery fell 1.1% to $3.97 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Blast from the Past: The soy complex led the CBOT lower, with analysts seeing the potential for prices to return to pre-pandemic levels -- during an amplified trade war between the U.S. and China. If soybean prices drop to $9.50 a bushel, it would put them at the high end of the range they traded then, according to FactSet data.
The lower momentum for soybeans, soyoil and soymeal comes after Monday's WASDE report showed an additional 1 million acres of soybeans planted this year, said AgResource in a note.
Shake It Off: The USDA reduced its count of planted wheat acres by 900,000 acres in its WASDE report, and in turn cut expected production by 26 million bushels.
The reduction didn't translate into lasting support for wheat futures. "2024 production is still higher than last year in the U.S.A," said Argus in a note, adding that corn and soybeans have dominated more post-WASDE attention from traders.
The USDA reported that U.S. spring wheat is in 72% good or excellent condition, down from 74% reported last week but still well above 42% at this point last year.
Stopping for a Breath: Corn backtracked Tuesday after its post-WASDE rally Monday, with the report showing improved demand figures.
The data "was not as bearish as feared," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note.
The most recent crop progress report didn't provide much incentive for corn to rally, with the crop condition left unchanged at 67% good or excellent condition.
INSIGHT
Cream of the Crop: The eastern side of the U.S. Corn Belt appears to be where the majority of the strong bumper crops of corn and soybeans are coming from, according to USDA data.
In total, nine states are projected to have record yields in 2024, said the American Farm Bureau Federation, citing USDA statistics.
Five states are expected to have record soybean yields, all east of the Mississippi River.
Record yields come as farmers struggle with balancing the double whammy of lower commodity prices and higher input costs, said the AFBF.
Bottom Feeding: Traders said they are taking the opportunity to suss out where the near-term bottom is for all three row crops. Corn closed under $4 for the third time this year and soybeans finished at their lowest since September 2020.
This weakness is expected to continue through the end of August, Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group said in a note.
New Round of Sales: The USDA issued a notice Tuesday morning reporting new flash sales to both China and Mexico, major trading partners for U.S. agriculture. The USDA said 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year, while 137,160 tons of corn were sold to Mexico for delivery in 2024-25.
The announcement comes after the USDA confirmed a slate of new sales to unknown destinations on Monday.
AHEAD
-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.
-- The USDA is due to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.
-- Deere & Co. is scheduled to release its third-quarter earnings report Thursday, with a call at 10 a.m. EDT.
-- The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-13-24 1554ET
