(CercleFinance.com) - The Trump effect remains very much alive on the FOREX for the Dollar, which climbs +0.5% against the Euro, which shatters its April 15 low of 1.0625E and falls back to 1.0570, its "lowest" since October 31, 2023.
The "$ Index" soars 0.4% to 106.45, its best mark since the end of October 2023.
The greenback also gained +0.5% against the yen, +0.4% against the Swiss franc and +0.3% against the pound.

The upward trajectory of the $ since the middle of the night makes the relationship with the CPI (US consumer price index) of little relevance, but there was indeed a "rally" between 2.30 and 4pm: according to the Labor Department, inflation rose by 2.6% at an annual rate and by 0.2% "sequentially" in October 2024 (compared with September).
Excluding energy (-4.9%) and food (+2.1%), two traditionally volatile categories, the underlying annual inflation rate came out at 3.3% last month, a level also in line with economists' forecasts (on a sequential basis, CPI in 'core' data rose by 0.3%).

This suggests that the markets are not worried about growth prospects, but rather are adapting to a new reality", say Danske Bank analysts.

In these conditions, investors will be turning their attention to economic indicators in the coming days, to determine whether the current differential between Europe and the United States is actually justified.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has become a hypothesis that receives less than 50% of traders' votes.


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