The dollar firmed up on Monday, gaining 0.3% against the euro (down to 1.1045), +0.2% against the pound, +0.4% against the yen (142.85) and, above all, 0.6% against a slightly weaker Swiss franc (-0.15% against the euro to 0.9375).

The Dollar-Index gained +0.3% to 101.50 (50% of the previous week's modest losses wiped out) in anticipation of the televised debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the run-up to the US presidential election on November 5, which takes place tomorrow evening (in the middle of the night for Europeans).

While the gap in voting intentions has recently widened in favor of the Democratic candidate (according to the Democratic media, which is in the majority in the USA, the few 'conservative' media outlets produce the opposite figures), it is likely that many voters will rely on this debate to make their choice.


On the figures front, nothing to report with the publication of a minor figure in the USA: US business inventories rebounded slightly in July (+0.2%) after remaining stable in June, show data published Monday by the Commerce Department: the consensus of economists was for 0.3%, after perfect stability the previous month.

The statistics were mainly driven by a 1% rise in automotive inventories, while computer equipment inventories rose by 1.4%.

Business sales rose by 1.1% in July, meaning that at the current rate it will take 1.35 months to clear inventories, compared with 1.38 months in July 2023.

Market participants will now be watching for US inflation figures on Wednesday, as the consensus is for CPI to fall to 0.2% over one month in August, which would bring its increase to 2.6% over one year.

The 'core' CPI index, the one most closely monitored by the Fed, is expected to hold steady at 3.2% year-on-year, as in July.

As for the euro, there's no great suspense in sight this week: Forex traders are expecting the ECB to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, from 3.75% to 3.50%, while revising downwards its outlook for inflation growth.
The question that could animate Christine Lagarde's conference is whether the ECB intends to cut rates two or three times this year (the 2nd time will be this Thursday).

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