By Paul Vieira
OTTAWA--Canada's Liberal Party said its members will pick a new leader to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on March 9, setting the stage for an eight-week campaign that's likely to be shortly followed by a general election.
Polling this week indicates that regardless of who wins, the next Liberal leader faces a difficult task to rebuild support and be competitive in an election campaign against the Conservative Party, which holds a significant lead as the public seeks change after nearly 10 years of Liberal rule.
Trudeau stepped down on Monday and said he would remain Canada's leader until a new Liberal leader is selected. Pressure among Liberal lawmakers for Trudeau to step down escalated last month, due to dismal polling numbers and the abrupt resignation of Trudeau's then-finance minister, Chrystia Freeland. She cited policy disagreements on how to prepare for a possible trade war with the U.S. stemming from the incoming Trump administration.
The Liberal Party said late Thursday that would-be contenders must declare their candidacy before Jan. 23, with a vote among members to determine the winner scheduled for March 9, which is a Sunday.
Freeland and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney are expected to be the front runners for the post. Canada's current Finance Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, said he wouldn't run, citing the need to focus on the risk of a 25% tariff from the incoming Trump administration on all U.S.-bound exports. Economists say such an event would throw Canada into a recession.
Ipsos Public Affairs said that a poll conducted after Trudeau's resignation indicated the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, enjoy 46% support among Canadians, or a 26-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. An election must be held no later than October -- although it is likely to happen as early as the spring, with all three opposition parties vowing to defeat the Liberal government when parliament resumes in late March.
Ipsos added that 23% of Canadians indicated they would consider voting Liberal now that Trudeau is gone -- which is only three points higher than their current 20% standing. "This suggests a new leader may not be able to immediately resurrect party fortunes," said Darrell Bricker, Ipsos's president.
Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-10-25 0811ET