Why Trump's Victory Is So Dangerous for -2-

1004 GMT - A Trump presidency would likely push Chinese electric-vehicle makers further away from the U.S. market, Wedbush analysts write in a note. Under Trump, the U.S. will likely have higher tariffs against China goods, which would continue to push away Chinese EV makers such as BYD and NIO and prevent them from flooding the U.S. as cheaper alternatives, Wedbush notes. EV tax incentives will also likely to be trimmed, Wedbush says. Overall, this would be negative for the EV industry, but should give Tesla a clear competitive advantage because of its scale and scope, which is unmatched by smaller rivals, Wedbush adds. Investors will focus on autonomous-driving initiatives as Tesla competes with China's own timeline for developing the technology, Wedbush says. ([e-mail])

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Trump Win Would Put Iranian Oil Exports at Risk, DNB Says -- Market Talk

0954 GMT - A likely Trump victory is expected to be bullish for oil next year on prospects of stricter enforcement of sanctions against Iran, according to DNB Markets. "We believe a Trump administration will be hard on Iran, as last time," analysts Helge Andre Martinsen and Tobias Ingebrigtsen say in a note to clients. They note that around 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian oil exports could be at risk. Oil prices are down more than 2% in early European trade, as a stronger U.S. dollar makes the commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies, weakening demand. ([e-mail])

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Trump Victory Would Hit Electric-Vehicle Market, But Boost Tesla -- Market Talk

0947 GMT - A victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election could harm the electric vehicle industry, but boost Tesla, analysts at Wedbush say in a note. Overall the industry might suffer as rebates and tax incentives are potentially pulled by a Trump administration, they say. However, with a scale and scope unmatched in the EV industry, Tesla could gain a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, the analysts note. Alongside likely higher China tariffs, this would help stop cheaper Chinese EV players from flooding the U.S. market, the brokerage says. "We believe a Trump win could add $40 to $50 per share to Tesla's stock," Wedbush says. Shares in premarket trading were up 12.5% at $283.10. ([e-mail])

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Grains Sell Off Following Trump Victory -- Market Talk

0858 ET - CBOT grain futures are lower pre-market, following the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. Traders are now concerned about the possibility of a new tariff war with China, which Trump discussed often on the campaign trail. Most of this concern is focused on U.S. soybean exports, of which China is the biggest customer--with fears that soybean export sales will be negatively impacted amid bumper crops from the Corn Belt. "Even without a trade war, the bean market had a very negative outlook on burdensome supplies," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. Most-active soybeans fall 1.6%, corn drops 0.8%, and wheat slides 1.3%. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Fall as Trump Win Projections Raise Inflation Concerns -- Market Talk

0848 GMT - Gold futures fall 0.5% to $2,736.00 a troy ounce. The precious metal has slumped as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields surge on projections that Republican candidate Donald Trump won the U.S. election. Yields are pushing higher and the dollar is gaining against most other currencies as debt is expected to balloon further under a Trump presidency, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. Trump's administration is also likely to lead to higher inflation in the U.S., market watchers say. Higher inflation rates reduce the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion. Trump has previously spoken of plans for reduced immigration, widespread tariffs and tax cuts, all likely to boost inflation.([e-mail])

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Oil Falls as Trump Win Projections Boost U.S. Dollar -- Market Talk

0838 GMT - Oil prices fall in early European trade as the U.S. dollar surged on projections that Republican candidate Donald Trump won the U.S. election. Brent crude and WTI are both down 1.7% at $74.24 and $70.71 a barrel, respectively. A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, typically reducing demand. "In the medium to longer term, a Trump victory could be more bearish for oil due to trade and foreign policy," ING analysts say in a note to clients. Oil prices are also pressured by signals of weaker demand in the U.S., as industry data citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute showed a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stockpiles. ([e-mail])

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European Wind-Energy Stocks Fall as Trump Nears Victory -- Market Talk

0934 GMT - Shares in European wind-energy producers fall in morning trade as former President Donald Trump is closing in on winning the U.S. presidential election. Danish offshore wind companies Orsted and Vestas lead the declines, dropping 8% to 385.90 Danish kroner and 6.4% to 111.70 Danish kroner, respectively. Germany's RWE and Nordex trade down 3.1% at 29.44 euros and 5.9% at 12.34 euros, respectively. Major wind-turbine maker Siemens Energy's shares trade 3.2% higher at 40.20 euros, likely due to being less exposed to wind-energy sentiment given its diverse portfolio, according to Citi analysts. ([e-mail])

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European Renewables Face Short-Term Hit, Potential Buy Opportunity on Likely Trump Win -- Market Talk

0917 GMT - European renewable-energy utility sector is likely to take a short-term hit, though this could soon turn into a buying opportunity, Citi analyst Jenny Ping writes in a note. Renewable stocks, particularly those in offshore wind, could face more negative sentiment than onshore or solar, Ping says. Meanwhile, gas prices have held steady into the elections, but a Trump presidency could put pressure on prices, given its impact on the Russia-Ukraine situation. This could potentially affect commodity-driven utilities negatively, Citi says. Shares in Portugal's EDP Renovaveis are down 6.8% at 11.78 euros, while Austria's Verbund is trading 4% lower at 73 euros. Italy's Enel shares are down 0.2% at 6.99 euros. ([e-mail])

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Trump Win Not Seen Disrupting Global Oil Dynamics -- Market Talk

0806 ET - Oil prices have yet to show significant movement with the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House, though it is likely that regardless of the election and any geopolitical uncertainty that it will be persistent trends in oil markets that shape the outlook for the fuel, Rystad Energy's Mukesh Sahdev says. Prices remain under pressure from ongoing supply chain disruptions and a sluggish macroeconomic recovery. Sahdev says it's OPEC-plus that still pulls the strings, and it is likely to continue directly influencing crude supply and indirectly managing product supply. As well, Sahdev says oil trade flows continue to battle inefficiencies and geopolitical conflicts and changes in supply routes are unlikely to resolve easily. ([e-mail]; @RobbMStewart)

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Iron Ore Prices Edge Lower; Near-Term Strength Amid Volatility Expected -- Market Talk

0251 GMT - Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trading. Prices may remain volatile but relatively strong in the near term, Galaxy Futures analysts say in a commentary. China's Politburo meeting that took place at the end of September has set the tone for medium-to-long-term policy direction, with macroeconomic expectations likely to support prices, the analysts add. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.3% at CNY785.0/ton. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-06-24 0949ET