Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump announced the cancellation of strikes against Iran: imagine the symbolism of a president unleashing hell on the very day he officially inaugurates the start of the World Cup... against a country that is taking part in the competition... 

Otherwise, we are seeing a return to the classic pattern of previous "TACOS," notably that of April 7, when he announced the "disappearance of a civilization" during the following night before "suspending" operations and announcing a ceasefire.

In this instance, everyone will agree that a truce in the Middle East is timely... and it comes with the same promise as the 29 previous "imminent deals": "the finalization of an agreement is now only a matter of details, the Iranian side is ready to sign, it is practically done."
This has been denied every single time, but it was impossible not to celebrate this announcement on the eve of the SpaceX IPO and as the first matches are set to begin ahead of the weekend.

The reason for the +2% leap in 30 minutes, which began around 7:25 p.m. (mid-session on Wall Street), was not yet public knowledge... but every time such a movement has occurred since March 30, it has been because a positive "rumor" spread within an inner circle, then became official with a statement from Donald Trump regarding an "imminent peace deal."

This hypothesis was corroborated by a sudden drop in oil, with "WTI" falling -7% toward $86.2 and Brent dropping -6% toward $89.

As soon as a relaxation of the geopolitical climate is envisioned, investors rush into the "Mag-10" (the tech titans), and the scenario played out perfectly tonight, with the "SOXX" soaring +8.3% toward $586, marking its third-best close in history, within 3% of its June 2 peaks ($605).

Among the day's stars, Sandisk exploded +14.3%, KLA +13.2%, Lam Research +12.7%, ARM +11.3%, Applied Materials +10.9%, Micron +10.5%... and Microchip, which was stagnating around 5:30 p.m., finished at +5.4%.

Other signs of a sharp decrease in stress included the "VIX" plunging -12% toward 19.50 and the dollar losing ground: the "Dollar Index" fell back from 100.3 to 99.65 (-0.3%), a -0.7% straight-line drop, which constitutes a "significant" movement.

On the US "stats" front, the two indicators published on Thursday sent mixed signals.

Weekly jobless claims increased more than expected: up +4,000 to reach 229,000 units, while analysts had anticipated a decline toward 220,000.

At the same time, the producer price index accelerated sharply in May to 6.5% on an annual basis, or +1.1% in May compared to April, whereas analysts were expecting an increase of 0.7%. Conversely, April data was revised downward from +1.4% to +1.1% on a sequential basis.

The probability of a rate hike in the United States has just crossed the two-thirds threshold, whereas a similar consensus in January was betting on three rate cuts by the end of the year.

T-Bond yields also savored the plunge in crude prices following Donald Trump's announcements: the 10-year, which was still at 4.55% in the morning, finished at 4.455% (-8.5 basis points); the 30-year, which had been stagnating above 5.00%, shed 7 basis points to 4.955%; while the 2-year fell 7.3 basis points to 4.054%, after hovering above 4.15% at the start of the session.

And finally, according to the latest tally of buy orders for SpaceX shares, the IPO is reportedly oversubscribed by a factor of 4, and the price on betting sites is said to be around $160, or 20% above the introductory price.