Major European stock markets are expected to open with minimal changes on Monday, as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow's release of a closely watched US inflation indicator, followed by earnings reports from major banks later in the week.

As of 8:15 a.m., the "future" contract on the CAC 40 index—for end-of-January delivery—was down 7.5 points at 8,359, while futures contracts on American financial markets were also trending lower.

Market participants appear ready to take a breather after a highly eventful week in which investors had to digest Washington's intervention in Venezuela, as well as data confirming a slowdown in the US labor market, which has created an average of just 49,000 new jobs per month in 2025, compared to 168,000 in 2024.

Over the past week, the CAC 40 gained more than 2%, marking its best weekly performance since mid-November and setting new records above 8,362 points.

Other major indices on the Continent—such as the DAX and STOXX Europe 600—also reached new all-time highs last week, reinforcing the stock market adage that January is traditionally a positive month for equities.

On Wall Street, US stock markets also wrapped up the first week of the year with average gains of more than 2%, resulting in new peaks for both the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq.

According to a well-known saying dubbed the "January effect," the first month of the year is often favorable for stock indices.

Following this established market dynamic, investors who sold their positions in December to lock in profits tend to return to the market at the start of the year, creating upward buying pressure.

"I remain bullish, personally, as history has shown that records often lead to more records," notes Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone.

However, the mood may shift to greater caution on Monday, ahead of the release of monthly US consumer price data, which is expected to show that inflation continued to slow in December.

This report is all the more anticipated since the latest figures showed a sharp deceleration in price dynamics in November, coming in at 2.7%, well below the consensus of 3.1%.

In December, CPI inflation is expected to rise by 2.6%, indicating better control over inflation that could bring the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate cuts closer.

On that note, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, was served over the weekend with a subpoena by the Justice Department regarding the controversy over renovation costs at the Fed's headquarters—a decision the central banker attributed to his reluctance to cut interest rates as sharply as President Donald Trump would have preferred.

Although this dispute is unlikely to have a short-term impact on the Fed's monetary policy outlook, it clearly rekindles questions about the independence of the Washington-based institution.

The start of earnings season, kicking off tomorrow with JPMorgan Chase's results—followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday, then Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Thursday—could also prompt investors to act with caution.

According to FactSet data, analysts are expecting S&P 500 component earnings to grow by 8.3% in the fourth quarter, which would mark the tenth consecutive quarter of rising results for companies in the index.

In Europe, bp and Richemont will be the first major groups to unveil their financial statements.