Widespread risk-off sentiment drags MIB lower; ECB eyes further hikes

(Alliance News) - On Friday, the MIB closed lower - in the 49,100 area - breaking the consolidation trend at the highs recorded in the previous session, amid a generalized risk-off environment across major European markets.

On the energy-geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz still closely monitored, albeit at lower levels than in the initial phase of the conflict, helping to maintain a floor under oil prices.

In parallel, the narrative from European central banks has reinforced expectations of further tightening, with the market now fully pricing in three additional ECB hikes, consistent with recent hawkish signals from Governing Council members, including Kazāks, who highlighted the risk of second-round inflation effects stemming from energy.

In the UK, estimates for the Bank of England remain oriented toward tightening, with the market pricing in approximately 70 bps of hikes over the course of the year, supported by hawkish statements from Huw Pill.

Consequently, the FTSE MIB shed 1.9% to 49,116.47 points, the Mid-Cap finished up 0.3% at 60,683.54 points, the Small-Cap fell 1.0% to 34,615.39 points, while the Italia Growth retreated 0.2% to 8,893.90 points.

London's FTSE 100 closed down 1.4%, the Paris CAC 40 shed 1.3%, while the Frankfurt DAX 40 fell 1.7%.

Returning to Milan, Avio was among the few gainers, with its price advancing 2.1%. Notably, PDT Partners raised its short position on the stock to 2.12% from 2.05%, while Walleye Capital increased its position to 1.24% from the previous 1.19%.

Telecom Italia - slightly above par - announced on Thursday that Fitch has upgraded the group's rating to 'BB+' from 'BB', confirming a Stable outlook. The rating agency cited the progressive strengthening of cash generation, supported by operational efficiencies, lower financial charges, and the stabilization of capex and working capital.

Unipol - down 0.8% - announced on Friday that it closed the first quarter of 2026 with a reported consolidated net result of EUR329 million, a 15% increase compared to EUR285 million as of March 31, 2025. The consolidated net result, including the contribution from the stake in BPER, stood at EUR433 million compared to EUR407 million on a like-for-like basis as of March 31, 2025, representing a 6.2% growth.

BPER Banca shed 3.7% to EUR12.21 per share. UBS initiated a review of the stock, cutting its recommendation to 'neutral' from 'buy' and reducing the target price to EUR12.50 from EUR13.50, following the stock's strong outperformance over the last twelve months.

Analysts Adele Palama and Ignacio Cerezo pointed out that the stock now trades at a premium of nearly 20% compared to European banks, following a performance exceeding 30% relative to Italian peers and approximately 60% in absolute terms.

On the Mid-Cap, Salvatore Ferragamo left more than 18% on the floor after quarterly results showed a slight decline, with the price in the EUR6.61 per share area.

Technoprobe soared over 32%. On Thursday, the company announced it closed the first quarter with consolidated revenues of EUR187.0 million, up 19% compared to the same period last year. The company explained in a note that the revenue and Ebitda margin targets previously set for 2027 will be brought forward to 2026 and revised upward for the current fiscal year, with expected revenues in the range of EUR950 million to EUR1.05 billion and an Ebitda margin between 44% and 46%.

ERG - up 1.4% - announced on Friday that it closed the first quarter of 2026 with an adjusted group net result of EUR61 million, a 24% increase compared to EUR49 million in the first quarter of 2025. The result reflects the recovery of wind conditions in Europe and the contribution of new installed capacity that entered service between 2025 and 2026 in the UK, France, and Germany, only partially offset by lower captured prices compared to the first quarter of 2025.

Reply - up 5.1% - announced on Friday that it closed the first quarter with a pre-tax profit of EUR99.8 million, representing over 15% of revenues, up from EUR86.9 million in the first quarter of 2025. Consolidated revenues amounted to EUR645.0 million from EUR607.5 million the previous year.

Interpump Group - bearish with a 9.1% drop - announced on Friday that it closed the first quarter with net profit slightly up at EUR57.5 million from EUR57.0 million in the same period of 2025. Revenues amounted to EUR524.8 million from EUR521.6 million.

The board of MARR - down 3.1% - approved on Friday the results for the first quarter of 2026, which closed with a net loss of EUR6.6 million compared to the loss of EUR2.7 million recorded in the same period of 2025. During the quarter, consolidated revenues stood at EUR426.0 million, up from EUR409.2 million in the first quarter of the previous year.

On the Small-Cap, Datalogic left 9.5% on the floor at EUR4.14 per share. The company approved the results for the first quarter of 2026, which closed with a net loss of EUR5.7 million, a slight improvement compared to the EUR5.9 million loss in the same period of 2025. During the period, revenues stood at EUR120.3 million, up 6.7% at current exchange rates and 11% at constant exchange rates compared to the first quarter of 2025.

The board of Eurotech - down 6.2% - approved on Thursday the consolidated interim management report as of March 31, closing the period with a group net loss of EUR2.6 million, an improvement compared to the loss of EUR500,000 recorded as of March 31, 2025. Revenues stood at EUR10.7 million, up 29% compared to EUR8.3 million in the same period of 2025.

EuroGroup Laminations - up 0.2% - announced on Thursday that it signed a five-year medium-to-long-term financing agreement for a total amount of up to EUR375 million with a pool of institutions including BNP Paribas Italian Branch, BNL BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit, Crédit Agricole Italia, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Banco BPM, and Deutsche Bank. The transaction aims to rationalize and optimize the group's financial structure, concentrating debt into a single pool operation to improve management efficiency, transparency, and financial flexibility.

Landi Renzo had a good session, among the few gainers, rising 6.0% in a rebound after four consecutive bearish sessions.

Among SMEs, Erredue had a strong session, advancing 8.0%, marking its fourth consecutive session closed with a bullish candle.

Promotica - up 4.6% - announced on Thursday that it closed 2025 with a consolidated net profit of EUR3.9 million, a 147% increase compared to EUR1.6 million in 2024. Pre-tax profit rose to EUR6.7 million from EUR2.5 million.

Renovalo - flat at EUR0.51 - announced on Friday that, as of March 31, the value of already contracted orders amounted to over EUR40 million. Of this amount, public sector orders represent 50% of the total, 'in line with the strategic guidelines defined by management', according to the company note.

VNE - up 1.6% - announced on Friday that it recorded consolidated orders of EUR4.4 million in the first quarter, up 13% from EUR3.9 million in the same period of 2025. Lorenzo Verona, Chairman and CEO of VNE, stated that the company is confident 'in being able to confirm growth expectations for the current year as well, particularly thanks to the internationalization path undertaken'.

Powersoft, however, shed 4.2% after two bullish sessions, with the price in the EUR18.50 per share area.

Across US markets, the Dow is shedding 1.0%, the S&P is retreating 0.9%, while the Nasdaq is down 1.2%.

On the currency front, the euro is changing hands at USD1.1628 from USD1.1675 on Thursday evening, while the pound trades at USD1.3338 from USD1.3480 yesterday.

Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD108.84 per barrel from USD105.03 per barrel on Thursday evening, while gold is worth USD4,552.65 per ounce from USD4,686.15 per ounce at yesterday's close.

On Monday's economic calendar, industrial production and retail sales data are due from China at 0400 CEST. At 1000 CEST, Italy's trade balance data will be released.

In the afternoon, a US Treasury bill auction for 3-month and 6-month maturities is scheduled.

On the corporate calendar, results are expected from Green Oleo, EuroGroup Laminations, and Omer.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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