Weekly market update: Wall Street is getting squeezed

Trading sessions were lively this week. The earnings season is indeed conducive to sanctions. However, indices held up fairly well, with the sell-off mainly concentrated on tech stocks and the software sector, which the market sees as the losers in AI. Visibility remains limited and volatility is therefore likely to continue in the coming sessions, depending on corporate results.

Weekly variations* FTSE 100 10,369  +1.43% GSK PLC +17.13% BEAZLEY PLC +9.09% IMPERIAL BRANDS PLC +8.97% SAGE GROUP PLC -11.8% METLEN ENERGY & META... -16.34% RELX PLC -16.83% DOW JONES INDUST... 50,115.67  +2.5% NASDAQ 100 25,075.77  -1.87% S&P 500 6,932.3  -0.1% GOLD US$4,958.58  +4.61% WTI US$63.39  +0.24% EURO / US DOLLAR US$1.18  -0.27%

This week's gainers and losers

Gainers: Lumentum +40.87%: The company posted a significantly improved second quarter with strong sales growth and a return to profitability. B. Riley has revised its recommendation to ‘buy’ and raised its target price significantly for the optical equipment specialist. Woodward +22.23%: The manufacturer of aircraft engine components has unveiled growth results while raising its outlook for 2026. McKesson +14.13%: The pharmaceutical distribution specialist posted solid results with higher-than-expected revenue and net profit, while raising its forecast for the current financial year. GSK +17.13%: The British laboratory is cutting up to 350 R&D jobs (UK/US) to reallocate its resources. At the same time, 2025 is progressing and the guidance for 2026 remains constructive, with a new European green light for Nucala (COPD).   Losers:   Strategy -9.87%: The share price of the company, which does nothing but accumulate Bitcoin, has been dragged down by the fall in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 this week.   Gartner -25.42%: The IT research and consulting firm is falling after its 2026 guidance was deemed too short, despite a decent fourth quarter, a scenario that UBS had warned was possible, pointing to a more cautious tone and a refocused scope.   PayPal -23.29%: The stock plunged after the publication of disappointing forecasts for 2026. This publication sealed the fate of CEO Alex Chriss.    AppLovin -14.03%: Anthropic's Claude Cowork's new plug-ins caused panic in the software sector, with the market believing that artificial intelligence is very close to disrupting this sector and its established players.

Commodities

Energy: The oil market is experiencing significant turbulence. Crude oil prices are highly volatile, buffeted by diplomatic tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude is trading at around $68 per barrel, while WTI is hovering close to $63. Investors are focusing their attention on the negotiations between the United States and Iran in Oman. The announcement of this meeting initially caused prices to fall, as the market hoped for a de-escalation. However, skepticism remains. The differences are profound: Tehran wants to address the nuclear issue, while the Trump administration is targeting Iran's ballistic missile programme and regional influence. Any failure of the talks is likely to immediately reactivate the geopolitical risk premium, especially as recent incidents, such as the destruction of an Iranian drone, are a reminder of the fragility of the situation. Metals: It is difficult to know where to turn on the precious metals front. The prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium are all over the place. Flash crashes are giving way to XXL rebounds, as the market purges recent speculative excesses. Over the past week, the price of gold fell to a low of around USD 4,400 per ounce before rebounding to USD 4,900. Despite these violent swings, the fundamentals remain favourable for precious metals, particularly gold, thanks to central bank purchases, geopolitical risks and demand for safe-haven assets. On the industrial metals front, the price of copper stabilised at around USD 12,900 per tonne in London. In mining company news, Rio Tinto and Glencore have ended their merger talks. Glencore felt that the proposed terms undervalued its copper assets. The deal would have created the world's largest mining group. Agricultural products: Coffee prices are falling, with Arabica and Robusta futures down around 10% this week. This is the result of healthy global supply, with Brazil expecting a record harvest. In Chicago, corn remains strong at 432 cents per bushel, as does wheat, which has stabilised at 535 cents (March 2026 contracts).

Macroeconomics

Macro: Although concern spread from the technology sector to precious metals, the market as a whole remains relatively resilient. Investors are not exiting the market altogether, but are instead making arbitrage trades by reinvesting in other sectors, starting with mid-cap stocks. Value stocks are regaining favor at the expense of growth stocks. While this type of movement is generally seen when traders fear a recession, this is not the case here. Attractive valuation levels largely explain this rotation, especially as analysts have significantly raised their earnings expectations for mid and small caps. The S&P 500 should now be buoyed by its 493 constituent stocks, while the magnificent seven are losing their lustre. Crypto: Third week in a row of horrible, very complicated times for crypto investors. Against a backdrop of risk aversion and persistent, even growing fears about the valuations of tech giants linked to artificial intelligence, Bitcoin, which has often been positively correlated with the Nasdaq in recent years, has been falling heavily since Monday. It is down 13% for the week, 25% since 1 January and 47% since its all-time high of USD 126,000 last October. In other words, Bitcoin has lost around USD 60,000 in just four months, wiping out all the gains it had made since Donald Trump's return to the White House. The situation is hardly any better for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded £1.2 billion in net outflows this week. As for other cryptocurrencies, as is often the case when Bitcoin falters, the entire market is reeling: Ether (ETH) is down 15% over the week and has fallen back below £2,000, Solana (SOL) is down 18% at around £80, and Binance Coin (BNB) is down 16% at £637. One reassuring point, however, is that there have been no incidents, slowdowns or technical bugs on the Bitcoin network to explain the fall in prices. In this context of risk aversion, investors are primarily offloading assets perceived as the most volatile, and cryptocurrencies are automatically at the forefront of these massive sales.

What a week! Volatility has made a clear comeback—just as we warned in last week's update. Investors' stance on artificial intelligence is shifting: complacency is fading, while doubts are growing about the true scale and timing of AI's economic disruption. This double hit has weighed heavily on certain corners of the market, notably software publishers, whose sell-off has sent shockwaves through riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, as well as pockets of outright exuberance like silver. Looking ahead to next week, the earnings season remains in full swing in the United States and is gathering pace in Europe. On the U.S. side, highlights include Coca-Cola, Cisco Systems, T-Mobile US, McDonald's and Applied Materials. In Europe, the spotlight will be on Kering, AstraZeneca, BP, EssilorLuxottica, TotalEnergies, Siemens, Hermès International and L'Oréal. On the macro front, attention will focus on Tuesday's U.S. retail sales and wholesale inventories, followed by Chinese inflation data and U.S. monthly employment figures on Wednesday. Have a great weekend!

Things to read this week

An emotional rollercoaster guaranteed as silver swings A spectacular overnight plunge, a partial rebound at daybreak: silver is once again showcasing the extreme nervousness of precious-metals markets. Caught... Read more The reasons behind Bitcoin's bloodbath With each passing week, crypto investors are hurting more. The week of January 19: -5.7%. The following week: -11.17%. This week: -12.57% so far. In four... Read more A "regime change": Kevin Warsh, the man who wants to revolutionize the Fed Since resigning in 2011, Kevin Warsh has been a vocal critic of the Fed. A message that echoes that of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Read more

*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.