Week Ahead for FX, Bonds : Central Bank Decisions -2-

"Auction for 20y JGBs, which are more sensitive to inflation risk premia, will be closely watched as a gauge of investor demand in the superlong sector," Barclays' FICC Research said.

China

A wave of key indicators are due Monday that will show how the Chinese economy has held up at the start of the year.

On the docket for Monday are retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial output, as well as house price data.

Analysts expect a mixed bag of results, as consumption and investment remain weak, and the property sector has yet to show meaningful signs of recovery.

The data will likely show that the domestic economy got off to a sluggish start in 2026, ING economists said, with industrial production likely to be the lone bright spot.

A Wall Street Journal poll forecasts a slowdown in retail sales growth to 3% on the year over January-February, alongside a sharp deceleration in FAI to 0.8%. Industrial production growth likely slowed, rising 5% versus 5.9%.

Citi economists think government trade-in subsidies and travel during the Lunar New Year holiday could lend support to retail spending, while weak auto and phone sales could weigh.

Strong cargo throughput likely buoyed industrial output, but production may not fully normalize until March, they said.

Housing data is unlikely to offer much to cheer about , with ING economists expecting to see a further decline in prices.

On Friday, the People's Bank of China is likely to announce that key lending rates tied to most corporate and household loans have remained unchanged.

DBS's economics team expects the 1-year loan prime rate to remain at 3.00%, as policymakers gauge January-February data to assess the impact of previous easing measures.

Australia/New Zealand

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise the official cash rate amid concerns that inflation is too high and likely to soar further given the rise in energy costs.

The RBA has signaled its growing fears in the last week and many economists have moved their forecasts for a further hike forward to March from May. If rates are raised, that will occur against the backdrop of growing fears that Australia's fuel reserves are running critically low, spurring price rise across the board.

The RBA's narrative this month is expected to point to the potential for further hikes, with headline inflation forecast by some economists to soon approach 5.0% on year, twice the rate targeted by the central bank.

On Thursday, New Zealand reports fourth-quarter growth data.

Capital Economics expects New Zealand's economy to have expanded by 0.5% sequentially, markedly softer than in the prior quarter but in line with the central bank's estimates.

The backward-looking data won't be pivotal to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision making, given that the outlook has been upended by the Iran conflict. "But for what it's worth, they will show that the output gap remained deeply negative at the end of last year," Capital Economics said.

Economists at HSBC expect to see an uptick in GDP growth on an on-year basis, flagging stimulatory monetary conditions and high commodity prices as two factors underpinning recovery.

Indonesia

Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates steady at its policy meeting Tuesday as the turbulence in energy markets raises risks for the economy.

Surging energy prices are worrying for Indonesia, which has limited oil reserves and fiscal space with which to cushion against an oil shock.

Pressure on the rupiah and persistent fiscal concerns give the central bank little room to cut rates further, and if oil prices stay high for a sustained period of time it could hold rates through the year, J.P. Morgan economists said.

Headline inflation has already risen due to base effects and higher energy prices, though core inflation remains subdued, JPM said. While growth-inflation considerations justify more fiscal and monetary easing, concerns about the fiscal deficit exceeding the legal ceiling could keep policymakers wary about making any moves until the headwinds ease.

Taiwan

Taiwan's central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday, which economists widely expect will be a hold.

With inflation under control and economic growth consistently topping expectations, there is no urgency for the central bank to act.

Although the ongoing Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices and risks some jump in inflation, Barclays economists think that the central bank will refrain from reacting to cost-driven inflationary pressures.

DBS's economics team thinks the central bank could raise economic growth forecasts given the strong momentum seen in January-February thanks to artificial-intelligence-related exports. It could also lift inflation forecasts to reflect uncertainty around oil prices and the potential passthrough to import costs.

"While it remains premature to expect rate hikes this year, the growth-inflation dynamics suggest that the next policy move is more likely to be a rate hike rather than a rate cut," DBS said.

Malaysia

Malaysia will release February inflation and trade data on Thursday, coming as officials look to blunt the impact of the Middle East conflict on the economy.

As an energy exporter, Malaysia seems better-placed than most others in Asia to weather the market turmoil. However, the government is taking steps to keep inflation in check, including by raising subsidies for fuel.

The February data is likely to show that inflation remained stable at 1.6% as food prices have been well-contained, while non-subsidized fuel prices saw a slight uptick, ANZ economists said.

Malaysia's exports growth may have moderated last month, partly due to higher base effects, DBS economists said, though continued AI-driven demand lends support to shipments of electrical and electronics products.

Singapore

Singapore will release its non-oil domestic exports data for February on Tuesday, which would offer insights on how its trade performance is faring amid rising global uncertainty.

Exports growth likely eased last month from January, partly due to adverse base effects from the Lunar New Year holidays, said DBS's economics team. Non-electronics domestic exports likely remained a drag for the second straight month amid tariff challenges, DBS added.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at [e-mail] and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-16-26 0414ET