It was a sharp comedown for traders who started the morning acting as though the Fed had already gift-wrapped a December rate trim. Markets still assign an 85–87% probability to a 25-basis-point cut next week, depending on the dataset consulted. Such conviction is striking, particularly given the economic muddle, the jittery crosscurrents in crypto and bonds, and the small detail that the official October and November job reports will only arrive after policymakers meet.

Cryptocurrencies tried to inject some swagger into the session. Bitcoin bounced nearly 2% to a two-week high earlier in the day, pulling crypto-linked stocks like Strategy and Bit Digital along with it. But even that wasn't enough to offset the souring tone in equity futures.

At the centre of the earlier optimism was political intrigue. The Trump administration abruptly cancelled interviews with finalists for the Fed chair job, fuelling expectations that Kevin Hassett, a known dove, is the president's chosen successor to Jerome Powell next May. Mr Trump's public nudges all but confirmed the rumour: executed, naturally, with the subtlety for which he is renowned (sarcasm alert).

Yet the broader economic landscape remains messier than markets would prefer. Manufacturing offers mixed signals. Holiday sales - a dependable barometer of American consumer stamina - are just as uneven. Retailers Macy's and Dollar Tree will report earnings soon, providing a clearer read on spending patterns. American Eagle, sensing an opportunity, lifted its sales forecast and saw its share price jump 14–15%, a holiday-season glow-up worthy of any influencer.

But labour data dealt the real blow to sentiment. ADP private payrolls had been expected to show a modest 10,000–40,000 job gain in November. Instead, the report showed a 32,000 job decline, turning optimism into a slow-motion wince. The ISM services report, due later today and watched closely for its employment and prices-paid components, may now carry even more weight.

In corporate news, Marvell Technology surged almost 10% after revealing a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI and issuing a bullish outlook. Microchip Technology enjoyed goodwill too, lifting its sales and earnings expectations and receiving a reception usually reserved for puppies and dividend hikes. The mood soured elsewhere: GitLab plunged 8% after swinging to a loss, and CrowdStrike fell after narrowing its sales forecast and posting a larger-than-expected quarterly deficit.

Beyond markets, geopolitics remains characteristically loud. The EU's decision to ban Russian gas imports by 2027 marks another dramatic step in its ongoing energy decoupling from Moscow. Ukraine continues targeting Russia's “shadow fleet” of sanction-evading tankers with naval drones - an escalation that will not lift spirits in the Kremlin, though they seldom run high there anyway. 

Commodity markets moved cautiously: oil prices edged higher amid tentative hope around Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while gold and copper drifted upward in anticipation of clearer Fed guidance.

In the Asia-Pacific region, tech momentum continued to buoy Japan's Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) and South Korea's KOSPI (+1%), while China, Hong Kong, and India remained under pressure. Australia gained a modest 0.2%. Europe saw only a slight lift, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.1%, supported in part by the earlier strength in U.S. indicators—strength that evaporated as futures slipped into negative territory.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Japan's PMIs, followed by those of China, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom; In the United States, the PMIs, ISM Services Index, ADP employment changes, and DOE crude oil inventories will be in focus. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,002
  • Gold: $4,208.77
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $62.55 (WTI) $59.47
  • United States 10 years: 4.08%
  • BITCOIN: $93,015

In corporate news:

  • Citigroup has hired Bank of America executive Jillian Snyder to lead its North American capital introductions team, part of its expansion in prime brokerage services.
  • Marvell Technology shares surged after announcing a $3.25 billion acquisition of Celestial AI, enhancing its AI chip and photonics capabilities and signaling stronger growth ahead.
  • Foxconn and Luxshare plan to boost Vietnam's annual game console production by millions of units, further cementing the country's role in global electronics manufacturing.
  • YouTube, owned by Google, will comply with Australia's teen social media ban by locking users under 16 out of their accounts, a move criticized for potentially reducing online safety for youth.
  • Vikram Sahu has been approved by India's central bank as the new CEO of Bank of America India, replacing Kaku Nakhate after 15 years.
  • France's CNIL has fined American Express 1.5 million euros for violations related to data privacy.
  • Rivian is recalling nearly 35,000 U.S. vehicles due to a seatbelt defect, with some models receiving over-the-air updates as part of the fix.
  • Netflix is reportedly pursuing a deal to acquire Warner Bros Discovery's studio and streaming businesses, aiming to offer bundled subscriptions to lower streaming costs and bolster content.
  • JD.com's supply-chain tech arm, Jingdong Industrials, plans to raise up to $420 million in a Hong Kong IPO to fund expansion and acquisitions.
  • Anthropic, backed by Google and Amazon, has hired IPO lawyers as it prepares for a potential public listing as early as 2026, seeking to raise capital and expand its AI presence.
  • Amazon is intensifying its AI and cloud computing initiatives through partnerships and innovations, while facing competition in reusable orbital rockets from China's LandSpace.
  • Boeing's CFO forecast has sparked a rally in industrial stocks, with a positive outlook for jet deliveries and free cash flow by 2026.
  • UPS faces wrongful death lawsuits from families of victims of a cargo jet crash in Louisville.
  • Embraer finalized a share buyback program approved in November.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Applovin Corporation: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Cognex Corporation: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 45 to USD 35.
  • Equinix, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 900.
  • Garmin Ltd.: Longbow Research upgrades to buy from neutral.
  • Lyft, Inc.: Arete Research upgrades to neutral from sell with a price target raised from USD 10 to USD 20.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight with a target price of USD 767.
  • Uber Technologies, Inc.: Arete Research upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 125.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt and raises the target price from USD 438 to USD 516.
  • Wayfair Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 123 to USD 94.
  • Ford Motor Company: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 10.50 to USD 13.
  • Illumina, Inc.: Baird maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 109 to USD 132.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 80 to USD 105.
  • Monster Beverage Corporation: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 53 to USD 73.
  • Netflix, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 1390 to USD 139.
  • Okta, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 110 to USD 85.
  • Oracle Corporation: BNP Paribas maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 430 to USD 290.