The Federal Reserve's latest quarter-point rate cut has electrified equities, while whispers of more to come fed enthusiasm for the most speculative corners of the market.

Wall Street is behaving like a creature that refuses to be tamed. Against a backdrop of political convulsions, tariffs, and diplomatic brinkmanship, investors have chosen optimism. The S&P 500, at more than 6,600 points, is a monument to resilience, or perhaps to denial. What was panic in April, when tariffs briefly sank markets, is now a rally powered by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. For investors, the future looks like a bargain bin: anything beaten-down, overlooked, or unloved is suddenly irresistible. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow all touched record highs on Friday, part of a rally that carried small-cap stocks to levels not seen before. Traders embraced artificial intelligence as a catalyst. But markets cannot outrun policy forever, and a new source of unease has arrived in the form of immigration.

Late last week, the Trump administration announced a dramatic increase in fees for H-1B visas, the work permits that grant American companies access to skilled foreign talent. The proposed levy of $100,000 per visa was immediately met with alarm. Technology firms depend heavily on engineers from India and China; consulting and financial firms are no less reliant. Over the weekend, companies warned staff to remain stateside or risk being stranded abroad. J.P. Morgan quietly advised visa-holding employees not to travel.

The irony is that this policy arrives just as Wall Street has been celebrating renewed growth prospects. Rate cuts, combined with enduring corporate profits, have created an impression (delusion?) of resilience. Futures markets reflected the new tension on Monday morning: Dow E-minis slipped by more than 0.4%, S&P futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq contracts lost 0.4%. Even the Russell 2000, which had notched an intraday record high on Friday, edged lower in pre-market trading. Policy uncertainty remains the one element markets cannot simply price away.

The paradox is that this exuberance is unfolding alongside caution in quieter corners of finance. Bond markets have resisted the mood, nudging yields higher, as though whispering reminders of inflation and geopolitical risk. Gold, often the refuge of the wary, is up more than 40% this year: triple the S&P's gain. The divergence is striking: stocks betting on a soft landing, bonds hedging against hard truths. History suggests that bonds may slumber for long stretches, but when they stir, their warnings can reshape economies.

Corporate America is also in the midst of its own recalibrations. Oracle, long defined by the steady hand of Safra Catz, has moved to a co-CEO structure, installing Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as dual captains while Catz ascends to the loftier perch of executive vice chair. Lockheed Martin presented Vectis, a sleek drone meant to glide seamlessly alongside fifth-generation fighters, a promise of battles fought by machines in tighter choreography. Pfizer agreed to pay as much as $7.3 billion for Metsera, betting that cardiometabolic ailments are the richest frontier of modern pharmaceuticals. And in the realm of old-money patience, Berkshire Hathaway quietly unwound its bet on BYD, the Chinese electric-vehicle champion, only to surface in Tokyo with a stake in Mitsui & Co. that grants it more than a tenth of the venerable trading house's vote.

This week's economic calendar is crowded with numbers that the Federal Reserve will parse with its customary gravity: personal consumption expenditures, gross domestic product, speeches from central bankers. 

In Asia-Pacific, gains were prevailing this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.1%, South Korea's KOSPI gained 0.6% and Australia's ASX rose 0.4%. India, after a difficult start, managed to return to near equilibrium. China is mixed, with gains on the mainland and the Hong Kong market lost considerable ground, down 0.9% for the Hang Seng. Leading indicators are mixed in Europe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 hovering around zero.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,472
  • Gold: $3,720
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $67.10 (WTI) $61.80
  • United States 10 years: 4.12%
  • BITCOIN: $112,800

In corporate news:

  • Oracle has appointed Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, while Safra Catz becomes executive vice chair of the board.
  • VNV Global is selling its stake in Tise to eBay for NOK 109 million, with the deal expected to close in Q4.
  • Lockheed Martin unveiled Vectis, a next-generation drone designed for combat missions and interoperability with 5th-generation aircraft.
  • Pfizer is acquiring obesity drug developer Metsera for up to $7.3 billion to strengthen its cardiometabolic pipeline.
  • T-Mobile announced Srini Gopalan will replace Mike Sievert as CEO on November 1, with Sievert transitioning to vice chairman.
  • Accenture plans to acquire French industrial project management firm Orlade to enhance its capabilities in large-scale infrastructure projects.
  • Northrop Grumman and Saab are in line for a €1.2 billion contract from Germany to upgrade its Eurofighter fleet.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb plans to launch its schizophrenia treatment Cobenfy in the UK in 2026 at the same $22,500 annual price as in the US.
  • Meta's Llama AI system has been approved for use by US government agencies, broadening its public sector applications.
  • Amazon will begin selling Whole Foods private-label products in Singapore, expanding its grocery reach in Asia.
  • Oklo has broken ground on its fast fission nuclear reactor in Idaho under a US DOE pilot program to accelerate nuclear development.
  • Stellantis detects unauthorized access to a third-party service provider's platform, affecting North American customers.
  • Berkshire Hathaway sells entire stake in BYD and acquires over 10% of voting rights in Mitsui & Co Ltd.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Crocs, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 95 to USD 75.
  • Everest Group, Ltd.: Raymond James downgrades to outperform from strong buy and reduces the target price from USD 410 to USD 375.
  • Albemarle Corporation: HSBC maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 75.
  • Old Republic International Corporation: Raymond James upgrades to strong buy from outperform and raises the target price from USD 43 to USD 47.
  • Xcel Energy Inc.: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 73 to USD 80.
  • Alphabet Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 215 to USD 275.
  • Intel Corporation: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its sell recommendation and raises the target price from USD 17 to USD 25.
  • Ionq, Inc.: B Riley Securities Inc. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 75 to USD 100.
  • Oklo Inc.: Wedbush maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 80 to USD 150.
  • Pbf Energy Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 23 to USD 30.
  • Lennar Corporation: Raymond James downgrades to underperform from market perform.
  • Tesla, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 400 to USD 500.