Valneva (+11.20%, at 4.19 euros)

Valneva stood out within the SBF 120 following a note from Stifel, which reaffirmed its Buy recommendation on the stock, accompanied by a slightly raised price target from 9.50 to 10 euros, representing an upside potential of 165.39% compared to Monday's close. The American investment bank is particularly optimistic about Valneva ahead of the anticipated phase III results for VLA15, a vaccine developed with Pfizer against Lyme disease, expected in the first half of 2026.


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Key Points

 - Specialist in the development of prophylactic vaccines against infectious diseases with limited therapeutic options;
- Revenue of €153.7 million generated 56% from Europe, followed by the Americas (27%), then Asia-Oceania (9%) and Africa-Middle East (8%);
- Ambition to create vaccines for diseases with no existing solutions, with two major milestones: 2024 for the commercialization of the chikungunya vaccine Ixchiq and 2027 for the Lyme disease vaccine;
- Shareholding structure: 6.2% (10.36% of voting rights) held by the Grimaud la Corbière group and 6.22% by BPI France, with Anne-Marie Graffin chairing the board of 6 directors and Thamas Lingelbach serving as CEO;
- A governance change expected by year-end, moving towards a board of directors and executive committee.

Challenges

- Agility of the business model:
                  - control of the value chain, from research to commercialization,
                  - value creation from group assets through partnerships,
                  - funding of clinical developments through a specialized infrastructure marketing 3 commercial vaccines (Ixiaro for Japanese encephalitis, Ixchiq for chikungunya, and Dukoral for cholera) and from rights derived from third-party vaccine distribution,
                  - financial security, with cash covering operational needs through 2027,   
                 - innovation supported by a portfolio of 400+ patents with 2 main assets and 3 preclinical programs: the only clinical-stage vaccine against Lyme disease, the only single-dose vaccine against chikungunya, and 3 vaccine candidates for Zika virus, Epstein-Barr virus, and human metapneumovirus;
- Environmental strategy: energy efficiency, waste minimization, optimal water usage, and a 5% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2025 compared to 2016;
- Strong business visibility thanks to agreements on vaccines with:
                  - Pfizer for co-developing and selling the Lyme disease vaccine ($308 million),
                  - U.S. authorities for Ixiario against Japanese encephalitis ($70 million),
                  - Bavarian Nordic for marketing and distributing specialized vaccines,
                  - Batavia Biosciences to develop a low-cost polio vaccine,
                  - the Butantan Institute for chikungunya vaccines for low-income countries;
- Solid balance sheet with €128 million in equity, strengthened by net cash of €126 million at the end of March.

Challenges

 - Commercial results from the launch, secured by €100 million in private funding and over $40 million from Cepi and the European Union, of Ixchiq, the only authorized chikungunya vaccine in the world, approved by Canada and the European Union;
- Results from phase 3 trials for the Lyme disease vaccine after completed recruitment, in partnership with Pfizer, which will file an application in 2026;
- Seeking partnerships for research on the human metapneumovirus vaccine and expanding the manufacturing network (3 sites, in Scotland, Sweden, and Austria),
- After a positive first quarter (€177 million in cash and net profit of €59 million after asset sales), 2024 targets raised: revenue between €170 and €180 million and R&D expenses between €60 and €75 million;
.- 2026 objective to achieve net profitability through doubling sales, driven by Ixchiq and Ixiaro, ahead of the expected Lyme disease vaccine market launch in 2027.