(Alliance News) - Following Intesa Sanpaolo's exchange offer for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and its acquisition of a 3.01% stake in Assicurazioni Generali via derivatives, market attention has shifted to UniCredit and potential countermoves by Andrea Orcel, Il Messaggero reported on Tuesday.

For the time being, however, the CEO continues to reiterate that the group's priority remains the Commerzbank transaction.

Intesa Sanpaolo's initiative, which could propel the group to a market capitalization of approximately EUR126 billion compared to UniCredit's EUR107 billion, has reignited speculation regarding the future of Italian banking consolidation.

Some observers do not rule out a renewed interest from UniCredit in Banco BPM, roughly eleven months after its previous acquisition attempt was abandoned, although the market considers this scenario unlikely.

A central role continues to be played by Delfin, the holding company of the Del Vecchio heirs, which owns 17.5% of MPS, 10.5% of Generali, 2.7% of UniCredit, 32.4% of EssilorLuxottica, and 28% of Covivio, with an estimated net asset value of approximately EUR44.5 billion. Should the exchange offer succeed, Delfin would hold approximately 4.18% of Intesa Sanpaolo.

In parallel, Delfin is undergoing an internal reorganization. Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio is working to increase his stake in the holding company to 50% by purchasing 12.5% each from his siblings Luca and Paola. The transaction, valued at approximately EUR10 billion, is being financed through an 18-month bridge loan supported by UniCredit, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas.

Market speculation also suggests that Orcel could evaluate moves on MPS or Generali to indirectly counter Intesa Sanpaolo's project.

Nevertheless, UniCredit's official strategy remains focused on pan-European growth and the Commerzbank deal, as part of the 'UniCredit Unlocked' plan. This plan targets net revenues of EUR27.5 billion by 2028, exceeding EUR29 billion by 2030, and shareholder distributions of EUR50 billion over the 2026-2030 period.

According to market analysts, the relationship with Delfin represents an element of stability for UniCredit and supports a strategy based on geographical diversification, international growth, and the strengthening of its presence in Germany through Commerzbank.

By Antonio Di Giorgio, Alliance News reporter

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