In a research note, the broker argues that such a transaction would come as no surprise, given that Reckitt has already signaled that Mead Johnson is no longer a strategic priority, while Danone has had the entity in its sights since at least 2017.

Based on a valuation multiple of 8 to 13 times 2026 EBITDA — implying an enterprise value between 4.7 billion and 7.7 billion euros — the potential acquisition would boost Danone's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 3% to 6% in the first year, and by 7% to 10% by the third year, according to its estimates.

A strategic deal that "ticks all the boxes"

The broker describes the mid-sized acquisition as one that would tick nearly every box by supporting both top-line and bottom-line growth, while providing an immediate accretive impact on gross and operating margins.

Crucially, the deal would allow the food giant to strengthen its portfolio with two flagship brands, Enfamil and Nutramigen, and diversify its U.S. operations, where Danone is heavily reliant on dairy products (accounting for 88% of its North American sales). It would also improve geographical balance while increasing the share of specialized nutrition to 60% of total earnings.

Finally, UBS highlights the highly complementary geographical footprints, noting that Mead Johnson generates nearly two-thirds of its sales in the United States, Canada, and Mexico — three markets where Danone has virtually no presence in this segment.