U.S. Military Planning for Potential Strikes on Iranian Energy Targets -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 0.6% to $110.45 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 4.2% to 52.17 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures rise 0.2% to $12,370 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 0.1% to $4,678 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

U.S. Military Planning for Potential Strikes on Iranian Energy Targets

The U.S. military is making preparations for potential strikes on energy targets in Iran, according to multiple U.S. officials, as President Trump ratchets up his demand for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Military planners are pulling out existing lists of potential targets to provide the president options if he decides to attack energy infrastructure, the officials said. Trump has ramped up his threats to do just that in recent days, telling The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that he would destroy all of Iran's power plants if the regime doesn't agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening.

OTHER STORIES:

Israel Says It Hit Third Petrochemical Plant in Iran

The Israeli military said it has struck a third petrochemical facility in Iran in recent days. The strike happened on Monday in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz, the military said, without naming the facility, which it described as one of Iran's last remaining compounds for producing chemical components needed to produce explosive material inside missiles, including nitric acid.

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Singapore to Roll out $778M Support Package to Mitigate Mideast Impact

SINGAPORE--Singapore is rolling out a US$778 million package to help businesses and households cope with the impact of the war in the Middle East, the government said Tuesday as it warned about the economic risks posed by the conflict.

"We cannot predict how exactly events will unfold, or when the conflict will end. What we do know is that Singaporeans are already feeling some of the effects on the ground," said Jeffrey Siow, senior minister of state for finance in parliament on Tuesday.

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China Caps Rise in Fuel Prices as Middle East War Drives Up Energy Costs

China has capped a sharp rise in domestic fuel prices as governments across the region look to cushion consumers and business against energy-driven inflation stemming from the fallout of war in the Middle East.

Chinese authorities said Tuesday that under the country's biweekly pricing mechanism, gasoline and diesel prices should have risen by 800 yuan and 770 yuan a ton, respectively. Instead, they will go up by 420 yuan and 400 yuan apiece. The changes take effect at midnight.

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Saudi Arabia Raises Crude Prices to Record Premiums as Iran War Strains Global Supply

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised the price of its oil grades to record premiums, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off supplies out of the Persian Gulf and roiled global energy markets.

State oil producer Saudi Aramco on Monday set the official selling price for May loadings of its Arab Light crude to Asia-the largest destination for Middle Eastern crude-at $19.50 above the Oman/Dubai regional benchmarks, up from a premium of $2.50 a barrel in April.

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The American Gas Exporter That Pulls In Billions During Energy Shocks

The world is in the throes of a significant energy shock for the second time in four years. Natural-gas exporter Venture Global is ready to reap the profits.

With an unorthodox business model that allows it to capitalize on global disruptions, Venture Global raked in billions of dollars in 2022 when Russia throttled gas deliveries to Europe and buyers sought new supplies. The windfall helped the company become the second-largest U.S. exporter of liquefied natural gas, after Cheniere Energy.

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Energy Stocks Are Having a Moment That Could Last

It's all but impossible to know where the war in Iran is headed and when the Strait of Hormuz will open up. Whatever the end game, it looks like oil prices are likely to stay higher, maybe much higher, for longer.

That means many investors who for years have shunned energy stocks may have to rethink their stance. Trouble is, given a sudden, sharp jump in valuations, any adjustment will need to be made over time, not in a knee-jerk way.

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Malaysian Vessel Secures Passage Through Hormuz

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia--One of the seven Malaysian-owned vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz has been granted safe passage and is now heading to its final destination, the country's foreign ministry said.

The breakthrough follows high-level diplomatic engagements, including calls between Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as talks between Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, Malaysia's foreign ministry said in a statement Tuesday. The ministry didn't provide a timeline for the remaining six vessels.

MARKET TALKS:

Oil Trims Gains But Markets Remain Nervous Ahead of Trump Deadline -- Market Talk

1040 GMT - Oil prices trim earlier gains but markets remain on edge after President Trump gave Iran until 8 pm Eastern time to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery is up 0.1% to $109.94 a barrel, while WTI futures for May rise 1.2% to $113.72 a barrel. Prices opened the session higher, with the international oil benchmark above $111 a barrel and the U.S. oil gauge at around $115 a barrel. "All eyes are now on Trump for any signs of a deal or another deadline extension," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "Combined with reports of increased shipments through the Strait in recent days, such developments could ease the risk premium and weigh on futures prices." ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Closes Lower; Thai Export Controls May Support -- Market Talk

1021 GMT - Palm oil futures closed lower, likely due to profit-taking, says Kenanga Futures in a note. Despite the fall, crude palm oil prices could be supported by Thailand's move to impose stricter controls on exports effective Tuesday, says CIMB Securities' Ivy Ng. The policy signals a broader trend of prioritizing domestic supply security amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, which could tighten global edible oil balances, she says. However, the overall boost to palm oil prices may be modest given Thailand's relatively small share of global exports, she adds. CIMB Securities raises its 2026 and 2027 average crude palm oil projections to 4,400 ringgit and 4,500 ringgit a metric ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia contract for June delivery ended 45 ringgit lower at 4,766 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Goldman Cuts 2026 Copper Price Forecast on Softer Demand Expectations -- Market Talk

0919 GMT - Goldman Sachs trimmed its full-year copper price forecast, citing softer demand expectations and a larger surplus. The U.S. bank now sees three-month futures at an average of $12,650 a metric ton, compared with previous estimates of $12,850 a ton. With a 0.4-percentage-point hit to global GDP growth expected from the energy price shock stemming from the Iran war, Goldman lowers its forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2% previously, and says it now expects a surplus of 490,000 tons from 380,000 tons previously. In mid-morning trade, LME copper is up 0.6% to $12,426.50 a ton. ([e-mail])

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Aluminum Prices Rise on Fears of Prolonged Market Tightness -- Market Talk

0750 GMT - Aluminum prices rise after Emirates Global Aluminium said it could take up to a year before operations at its Al Taweelah production site are fully restored following an Iranian strike. In early trading, three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange gain 1.1% to $3,505.50 a metric ton. "LME aluminium prices are up more than 10% since the start of the Iran war, reflecting a rising geopolitical risk premium and growing concern that Middle Eastern disruptions could translate into sustained tightness rather than short-lived supply shocks," analysts at ING say. A halt at EGA's Al Taweelah smelter, producer Alba's reduced operations and earlier curtailments at Qatalum smelter could take around 3? million tons of annual capacity offline--nearly half of Middle Eastern aluminum production--, according to ING. ([e-mail])

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Gold Slips Ahead of Trump's Iran Deadline -- Market Talk

0735 GMT - Gold prices tick lower as traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump's Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Futures in New York are down 0.4% to $4,666.70 a troy ounce. "Risk appetite was impacted by Trump's threats to attack Iran's energy infrastructure," analysts at ANZ say. "An escalation of the Middle East conflict saw the USD regain some strength and Treasury yields push higher." The U.S. dollar index--which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies--trades at 100.03, while oil prices hold gains, with Brent crude above $110 a barrel. ([e-mail])

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European Gas Prices Rise as LNG Flows Through Hormuz Remain Constrained -- Market Talk

0719 GMT - European natural-gas prices rise as flows of liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, tightening global supplies. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract is up 1.2% to 50.67 euros a megawatt-hour. According to Kpler data, two Qatari LNG shipments that appeared to be heading toward Hormuz reversed course on Monday. "The global LNG market has shifted from a short?lived disruption to a period of structural tightness," analysts at ANZ say. "Even if shipping routes reopen, Qatar's missing output cannot be replaced quickly, leaving the market to clear through higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing." Tighter inventories are reducing flexibility in both Europe and Asia, heightening sensitivity to weather and outages, while spot-market liquidity thins as buyers turn to long-term contracts for security, the analysts say. ([e-mail])

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Oil Rises as Trump's Iran Deal Deadline Looms

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04-07-26 0710ET