Air France-KLM unveiled a reported net loss of -252 million euros for the first quarter late last week, virtually stable compared to the same period a year earlier (-249 million euros). Group share of net income came in at -287 million euros, a 2% improvement.

Meanwhile, revenue reached 7.48 billion euros (in line with consensus), up 4.4% on a reported basis and 8.3% at constant exchange rates.

Reacting to this release, Oddo BHF confirms its 'outperform' rating on the airline group, with a price target lowered from 13 to 12.2 euros.

The analyst highlights robust demand, with no signs of a short-term slowdown, as yields (the average price paid by a customer for a given journey) rose by 9% in April, supporting revenues. He estimates that pricing power and 'premiumization' will offset approximately 90% of the expected increase in the fuel bill.

According to the broker, cost control is another supportive factor, with non-fuel CASK (cost per available seat kilometer) expected to see a limited increase of around 1% in 2026, despite some inflationary pressures.

The note also points to an active M&A environment, with projects involving TAP and SAS likely to strengthen the group's strategic positioning.

According to Oddo BHF, the 26% drop in the share price since the onset of geopolitical tensions already factors in a large portion of the risks, revealing a valuation deemed 'attractive'.

For its part, Bernstein confirms its 'market perform' rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of 10.20 euros.

The broker highlights solid operational execution, with unit revenues (RASK) up 5% and costs under control despite occasional weather-related disruptions.

The note also emphasizes yields increasing by 9% in March and April, driven notably by continued very robust premium demand and favorable cyclical effects.

However, the research firm remains cautious due to risks related to fuel and the group's high debt levels (approximately 14 billion euros), considering the stock remains too risky to hold in the current environment.

Finally, Bernstein believes that, despite improving fundamentals, geopolitical uncertainties and sensitivity to fuel prices limit short-term potential.