Donald Trump is not backing down. After absorbing the setback dealt by the Supreme Court on Friday, which struck down the tariffs, the occupant of the White House quickly went back on the offensive: “Countries that have been exploiting us for years are exulting and dancing in the streets – but their joy will be shortlived,” he warned.

The Trump administration immediately set about finding other legal grounds to impose the measure and announced over the weekend the introduction of a 15% tax on goods entering the United States for 150 days. The mechanism could then be extended by Congress.

The announcement plunged markets back into a climate of uncertainty - they thought that they had left behind with the signing of regional or bilateral agreements with the United States.

Analysts question what comes next

In Europe, exporters (and international law specialists) are asking: does the agreement signed between the EU and the US (the so-called “Turnberry Deal”), providing for 15% taxes on most goods from the EU, remain in force? Will the 15% announced by Trump be added to existing duties?

At Commerzbank, Vincent Starmer says the US government has not provided a definitive written answer to this crucial question. During his press conference, however, Trump insisted that the new duty rate would indeed be added to existing duties.

“The text of the law does indeed state that the additional duty supplements existing import duties. According to trade experts, however, existing duties refer only to those applied before Trump’s presidency under the ‘most-favoured nation’ (MFN) rule,” the German bank notes.

At UBS, the Supreme Court’s decision is seen as potentially easing inflationary pressure and supporting markets. The macroeconomic impact will nonetheless depend on the scale of the Trump administration’s response, the bank warns.

The question of reimbursing tariffs improperly paid for nearly a year is also being raised. Between $133bn and $175bn in tariff revenue has been generated by the new duties and should be repaid to importers over the coming quarters.

Stocks on the move

Meanwhile, earnings season continues. This morning, Exosens was down 3% after reporting revenue of €468.2m, up 22.1%. The stock had risen 15.6% after seven straight sessions of gains and is therefore seeing some profit-taking.

Elsewhere in corporate news, Carrefour posted the best performance on the CAC this morning (+2%), helped by analysis from Goldman Sachs and Jefferies, which raised their price targets on the stock.

Emeis climbed 6% after announcing an early exit from its safeguard plan. Improved operating performance is expected to continue through 2028.

Pernod Ricard fell 2%, weighed down by a downgrade from Deutsche Bank, which recommends investors sell the stock, with a target price of €74.

In terms of data, this morning markets absorbed Germany’s business climate figures. The Ifo index came in better than expected in February, at 88.6 points, versus 87.6 previously and expectations of 88.4. It is at its highest since August.

Finally, in London, Brent crude was down 0.8% at $71 a barrel. Gold resumed its upward march and is fully playing its role as a safe haven: the ounce was up 0.75% at $5,140. In FX, the euro gained 0.1% against the greenback, trading around $1.181.