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Key takeaways

  • Developed countries are switching to cleaner energy sources, thanks to the use of renewables for electricity generation.
  • China leads the low-carbon technology sector through its control of the entire value chain for solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.
  • The global energy transition faces challenges such as regional disparities in access and cost, geopolitical tensions, and the need for massive investments.

TotalEnergies, a global player in oil, gas, renewables, and low-carbon solutions, has released a report looking ahead to the future of energy—including a scenario for the coming years through 2050.

Access to energy is crucial for development, but billions of people still lack sufficient access to it, holding back progress in areas like healthcare and education. The challenge is to meet this demand while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Regional differences emerge

According to TotalEnergies, our global energy system faces a clear imperative: reducing emissions from electricity generation. Transportation and heat production also require major efforts. Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, there has been progress. Even as energy demand keeps rising—driven especially by economic growth in emerging countries—CO₂ emissions have risen more slowly, indicating a decoupling between energy consumption and emissions growth.

However, regional differences are becoming increasingly pronounced, with energy security and affordability emerging as shared concerns. Geopolitical tensions are further amplifying these disparities. The United States has become energy independent through shale gas and oil production, and is now a net exporter of these resources. By tapping abundant domestic gas supplies at competitive prices, the US has cut its CO₂ emissions by switching from coal- to gas-fired power plants.

China and Europe

China continues to dominate the low-carbon technology sector by controlling entire value chains and exporting solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. This dynamic stimulates innovation and drives down costs. While China’s installed capacity of coal-fired power plants is still growing, the integration of modern technologies and the rapid uptake of renewables are gradually reducing the carbon intensity of its electricity mix, with emissions expected to peak in the coming years.

The European Union is leading the decarbonisation of its electricity mix, but significant investments are needed to modernise its grid. Striking a balance between industrial competitiveness and public acceptance of the costs involved in decarbonisation remains a challenge—especially regarding the uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps.

Three scenarios for 2050

TotalEnergies presents three scenarios for 2050. In the Trends scenario, current policies largely continue and technological advances gradually reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The Momentum scenario is more ambitious: here, OECD countries achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and China by 2060. This path involves greater electrification, a phase-out of coal in developed economies, a temporary larger role for natural gas, and the development of alternative energy sources for sectors that are hard to electrify.

The most progressive Breakthrough scenario assumes a world where global warming is limited to less than 2 degrees. That requires stronger international cooperation, a rapid phase-out of coal use, and robust growth in low-carbon electricity production through extensive electrification. (jv)

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