The Federal Reserve's annual conference on community banking opened with little fanfare. Jerome Powell's contribution, delivered remotely, was limited to a polite greeting: "Good morning and welcome to the Federal Reserve Board. I am sorry that I'm traveling and could not be with you today." For a market trained to parse every syllable from the Chair for hints on the trajectory of monetary policy, this was less a communiqué than a courtesy. Analysts had gathered, literally and figuratively, waiting for Powell to tip his hand on inflation, labor markets, or the possibility of rate cuts. What they got was a thank-you note.

In the absence of guidance, investors turned their attention elsewhere. Futures markets were flat on Thursday morning, a kind of collective holding of breath.

Powell's remarks, focused entirely on the role of community banks, carried none of the rhetorical weight markets were hoping for. He praised their "strong links to the people and businesses they serve," and emphasized the Fed's commitment to tailoring supervision to their needs. These statements, while important within the regulatory ecosystem, offered no insight into the Fed's broader stance on interest rates, inflation, or the labor market.

The omission is notable. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting had revealed "lingering inflation concerns," suggesting that despite market pricing for aggressive rate cuts, policymakers remain cautious. Investors are, in effect, projecting a dovish pivot that the Fed has not yet endorsed. Powell's silence on these themes leaves that projection floating untethered.

Yesterday, the release of the Fed minutes added little clarity: officials remain caught between inflation anxiety and growth fears, but reaffirmed their bias toward further cuts. Markets are still betting on two by year's end.

Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Wednesday. The rally has been powered by expectations of easier policy and resilient corporate earnings. The twin forces of AI euphoria and the expectation of lower interest rates are still the market's main engines. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's charismatic chief executive, said that chip demand is "really, really strong," which sent the Nasdaq 100 gliding past 25,000 points yesterday. Nvidia's valuation now stands near $4.6 trillion, eclipsing Microsoft by $700 billion.

Yet beneath the surface, anxieties are accumulating and the vacuum left by Powell's silence - as well as the official economic calendar disrupted by a government shutdown - has sent traders searching for alternative indicators.

The corporate results are one indicator. PepsiCo's upbeat results, Delta's strong quarter, and projections from investment firms on job creation have become proxies for the unavailable official data. Carlyle's estimate of just 17,000 jobs added last month, a fraction of what economists had expected, has fueled worries about an economy losing steam just as inflation proves stubborn.

Even gold has become part of this narrative. Spot prices holding above $4,000 an ounce suggest a hedging instinct that persists despite record equity highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments, such as the first phase of a Gaza peace deal, offer glimmers of stability but cannot fully offset domestic uncertainty.

In Asia-Pacific, everything was looking very green this morning. Returning from a week-long holiday, mainland Chinese indices were up, with the CSI 300 gaining 1.3%. Hong Kong is the exception, down 0.1%. India and Australia were up more moderately, by 0.2%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was up 1.5%. South Korea is still closed for a public holiday. Europe's indices are bearish, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.1%.

Today's economic highlights:

Today: in the United States, new unemployment claims and GM wholesale inventories will be available. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 
  • Gold: $4,043
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.00 (WTI) $62.27
  • United States 10 years: 4.12%
  • BITCOIN: $123,120

In corporate news:

  • Mergerware and Mercer have partnered to modernize M&A deal execution processes.
  • PepsiCo beat Q3 estimates with $23.94 billion in revenue and named Walmart's Steve Schmitt as its new CFO amid pressure from activist investor Elliott Management.
  • Assurant has acquired Optofidelity's mobile device testing solutions to enhance its automation capabilities.
  • Google launched Gemini Enterprise, a new product featured on its website.
  • Oracle was named a leader in corporate loan lifecycle management by IDC MarketScape.
  • Affirm has extended its collaboration with Google, supporting the Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) and integrating with Google Pay Chrome's autofill feature.
  • Chevron expanded its digital and AI capabilities in India with a new 312,000 sq ft facility in Bengaluru as part of its ENGINE center.
  • Delta Air Lines raised its annual targets after a strong Q3 and expects sustained demand and improved pricing through Q4.
  • DoorDash and Serve Robotics partnered to deploy delivery robots on the DoorDash platform, expanding Serve's reach beyond Uber Eats.
  • The NHTSA opened a probe into Tesla's Full Self-Driving system over repeated traffic law violations and crash incidents.
  • Electronic Arts is betting big on Battlefield 6 to rival Call of Duty and restore its shooter franchise reputation ahead of its $55 billion buyout.
  • US banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are expected to report strong Q3 profits, fueled by a rebound in M&A activity.
  • Turkish Airlines may switch a major Boeing 737 order to Airbus if engine cost negotiations with CFM fail.
  • GE Aerospace's FlightPulse app saw rapid growth, now used by 60,000+ pilots with expectations to hit 70,000 by year-end.
  • Alibaba Cloud partnered with NBA China to integrate AI-driven fan engagement tools, including game highlights and player insights.
  • CAA criticized OpenAI's Sora app for putting creators' rights at risk, demanding fair compensation and credit for AI-generated content.
  • Google plans to invest 5 billion euros in Belgium, creating 300 jobs.
  • Nvidia receives US approval for chip exports and some sales to the UAE.
  • Elon Musk's xAI raises $20 billion in funding, surpassing initial expectations.
  • OpenAI expands ChatGPT Go to 16 additional Asian countries.
  • Microsoft collaborates with Harvard to improve its Copilot AI assistant.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Bloom Energy Corporation: HSBC downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 44 to USD 100.
  • Datadog, Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Draftkings Inc.: Berenberg upgrades to buy from hold and reduces the target price from USD 45 to USD 43.
  • Graphic Packaging Holding Company: RBC Capital downgrades to sector perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 25 to USD 21.
  • Iqvia Holdings Inc.: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 195 to USD 235.
  • Marsh & Mclennan Companies: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 248 to USD 242.
  • National Fuel Gas Company: Scotiabank downgrades to sector perform from sector outperform with a price target raised from USD 102 to USD 106.
  • Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 211 to USD 220.
  • Renaissancere Holdings Ltd.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price of USD 303.
  • Sealed Air Corporation: RBC Capital upgrades to outperform from sector perform with a price target raised from USD 35 to USD 48.
  • Tractor Supply Company: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 62.
  • Alphabet Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 225 to USD 294.
  • Amd (Advanced Micro Devices): Fubon Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 200 to USD 300.
  • Centene Corporation: Mizuho Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 28 to USD 40.
  • Elevance Health, Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 342 to USD 420.
  • Hexcel Corporation: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 67 to USD 92.
  • Iqvia Holdings Inc.: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 195 to USD 235.
  • Joby Aviation, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 7 to USD 15.
  • Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.: Canaccord Genuity maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 74 to USD 120.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 125 to USD 155.
  • Tesla, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 374 to USD 509.
  • Unitedhealth Group Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 430.