Behind the mood swings lies a market trying to price the future in the dark. The longest U.S. government shutdown in history has frozen the official data flow, forcing investors and the Federal Reserve to navigate blind. Without reliable figures on jobs or inflation, each private report carries outsized influence. ADP's strong jobs estimate hinted at resilience, Challenger's report of the worst October layoffs in 22 years suggested the opposite.

Technology remains the nerve centre of this volatility. The same stocks that powered the market to record highs this year - AI, chips, cloud - are now the ones keeping traders up at night. Qualcomm warned that a key customer, Samsung, may cut orders next year. Its shares dipped despite solid sales. 

Still, the "AI trade" refuses to die. Datadog jumped after lifting its forecasts, Snap surged on news of a partnership with Perplexity AI. Investors are caught between fearing a bubble and fearing they'll miss the next one.

Earnings season has been kinder than expected. Of the 379 S&P 500 companies that have reported, more than four-fifths beat forecasts, well above the historical average. Yet that hasn't translated into steady gains. DoorDash plunged after disappointing profits, Elf Beauty cratered, and even solid numbers from Qualcomm and Tesla barely moved the dial.

Outside tech, the picture is equally uneven. Diageo, maker of Johnnie Walker and Guinness, cut its guidance as consumers in America and China tightened their belts. Pfizer is still hunting for growth, upping its bid for the weight-loss startup Metsera as Novo Nordisk circles. By contrast, Maersk raised its earnings outlook after a jump in Asian freight demand.

Bond traders are twitchy. Large asset managers such as Pictet and Jefferies are underweight Treasurys, betting that investors are far too hopeful about rate cuts. The dollar, after reaching a five-month high, is easing. Gold is climbing again, an old reflex when nerves return.

Abroad, policymakers are treading carefully. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates this week but may hint at a December cut. Sterling has weakened as traders position for that shift.

Investors are weighing the consequences of a potentially unfavourable ruling from the US Supreme Court on the legal legitimacy of the Trump administration's tariffs. A pivotal hearing took place yesterday, and it didn't go particularly well for the executive, despite a Republican-leaning bench. At the heart of the case is President Trump's use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), designed to respond to "unusual and extraordinary" threats. Several justices questioned whether Trump had overstepped congressional authority. Others, notably among the conservatives, underscored the traditional leeway granted to presidents in trade matters, hinting at a potentially split decision.

Trump, who sees tariffs as a cornerstone of both his economic and foreign policy, has urged the Court to issue a swift ruling. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, present at the hearing, said the administration was prepared to continue the legal battle in the event of a setback. A negative or restrictive ruling could have significant implications, particularly regarding financial restitutions. Trump himself warned that an adverse verdict would be "devastating". The Court is expected to issue its ruling in December or January at the earliest. 

Meanwhile, several Fed members (Williams, Barr, Waller, Hammack and Musalem) are scheduled to speak today. Earnings season remains in full swing, with results from ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, Veolia, Engie, Commerzbank, Rheinmetall, and many more.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the market apocalypse has also been called off. All indices are trading higher, with Hong Kong and Tokyo posting gains of more than 1.5%. European bourses are bearish, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.1%.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Japan's PMIs, followed by industrial production in Germany and private sector jobs in France; the unemployment rate in Switzerland and retail sales in the eurozone; in the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's decision on the bank rate; in the United States, Challenger layoffs, new unemployment claims, non-farm productivity, unit labor costs, and wholesale inventories. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,835
  • Gold: $4,006
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.81 $ (WTI) $59.93
  • United States 10 years: 4.15%
  • BITCOIN: $103,135

In corporate news:

  • Johnson & Johnson received FDA approval for Caplyta as an adjunctive treatment for major depressive disorder in adults.
  • Ralph Lauren raised its full-year revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for premium apparel and pricing power.
  • Air Products beat profit estimates on strong European and Asian sales and forecast higher-than-expected earnings for 2026.
  • Parker-Hannifin posted record Q1 sales of $5.1 billion and raised its fiscal 2026 outlook due to aerospace and industrial growth.
  • Cummins exceeded Q3 revenue estimates and increased its dividend for the 16th consecutive year despite lower EPS due to hydrogen-related charges.
  • Nova reported a 25% jump in Q3 revenue, beating expectations on strong demand for metrology solutions in memory and logic chips.
  • D-Wave Quantum doubled its Q3 revenue year-over-year, supported by growing quantum computing demand and international expansion.
  • Vistra missed Q3 revenue estimates but beat EBITDA expectations, narrowing 2025 guidance and launching a $1 billion share buyback.
  • Rockwell Automation topped Q4 sales and profit estimates, announcing the dissolution of its Sensia joint venture in fiscal 2026.
  • Eli Lilly will begin phase 3 trials of its amylin-based obesity drug eloralintide after mid-stage trials showed up to 20% weight loss.
  • CyberArk beat Q3 revenue estimates with 43% growth, fueled by identity security demand and recent acquisitions.
  • Datadog beat Q3 revenue and EPS estimates, citing growth in large customers and launches of new AI and security products.
  • SharkNinja met Q3 sales expectations and raised its full-year forecast, benefiting from new product launches and international growth.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery ended Q3 with 128 million streaming subscribers, maintaining profit guidance despite advertising revenue declines.
  • Palantir and Stagwell announced a partnership to build an AI-driven platform for marketers.
  • ConocoPhillips beat profit estimates in Q3 and raised its dividend and production outlook following increased output.
  • DuPont topped Q3 estimates but forecast weak Q4 results due to business divestitures and spinoffs.
  • NRG beat Q3 EPS estimates and announced a $3 billion share buyback program through 2028.
  • Insulet beat Q3 revenue and profit expectations on strong demand for its Omnipod insulin pumps and raised its full-year outlook.
  • Charles Schwab will acquire Forge Global for $660 million to broaden access to private markets.
  • Advanced Drainage Systems beat Q2 revenue estimates, driven by acquisitions and growth in product demand.
  • Somnigroup topped Q3 sales expectations and raised its 2025 guidance, citing synergies from the Mattress Firm acquisition.
  • EchoStar agreed to sell its full AWS-3 spectrum license portfolio to SpaceX for $2.6 billion in stock, while creating a new division and appointing Charles Ergen as CEO.
  • Coinbase was fined €21.5 million by Ireland's central bank over failures in transaction monitoring systems linked to potential criminal activity.
  • Tapestry raised its annual profit and sales targets as Coach's Tabby handbags saw strong demand, especially among Gen-Z consumers.
  • Vast Data, backed by Nvidia, signed a $1.17 billion deal with CoreWeave to power AI infrastructure.
  • Exxon Mobil signed a deal to explore gas offshore Greece, marking a deeper U.S. energy footprint in the eastern Mediterranean.
  • Apple is nearing a $1 billion per year deal with Google to integrate Gemini AI into Siri.
  • Google is in early talks to increase its investment in Anthropic, potentially valuing the startup at over $350 billion.
  • Snap surged 18% after integrating Perplexity AI and beating Q3 revenue estimates.
  • OpenAI is reportedly seeking a U.S. government debt guarantee to fund expansion, a potential boost for its suppliers and partners.
  • Celsius Holdings beat Q3 revenue estimates with 173% growth, despite a net loss linked to distributor transition costs with PepsiCo.
  • Lamar Advertising posted a slight Q3 revenue beat and sees strength in holiday ad demand and momentum into 2026.
  • Meta allegedly earns up to $16 billion annually from scam and prohibited ads, according to internal documents reviewed by Reuters.
  • DoorDash shares dropped nearly 9% after revealing plans to ramp up 2026 investments despite missing Q3 profit estimates due to rising costs.
  • Smith & Nephew shares fell 9% as weak U.S. knee implant sales weighed on revenue, though annual guidance was maintained.
  • JPMorgan was fined €45 million by German regulator BaFin for late money-laundering reports, its largest-ever penalty in Germany.
  • Google plans to announce its biggest-ever investment in Germany next week, involving infrastructure, data centers, and renewable energy projects.
  • Amazon recovered from a major service outage affecting over 6,000 users, with AWS confirming systems are now operating normally.
  • Qualcomm forecast better-than-expected quarterly results, but shares dipped due to a projected decline in Samsung-related business.
  • Pfizer plans to raise its offer for obesity drugmaker Metsera after losing a court bid to block Novo Nordisk's $10 billion offer, amid FTC concerns.
  • Aeromexico, backed by Apollo, raised $223 million in a U.S. IPO, marking its return to public markets post-bankruptcy.
  • Turkish Airlines signed a deal with GE Aerospace for engines and maintenance services for 75 Boeing 787 aircraft.
  • Exxon Mobil expects first gas production from its Greek offshore project in the early 2030s, investing up to $100 million.

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