Ten days ago, Donald Trump threatened to strike Iranian energy sites. Just hours before his ultimatum was set to expire, he surprised everyone by announcing that discussions with Iran were underway. He then paused his threats for five days. On Thursday, he pushed this deadline back again to April 6 to allow more time for negotiations.
For the past month, the US President has suggested that the conflict in Iran is a matter of weeks, repeatedly describing the military operation as an "excursion." "The United States of America is engaged in serious discussions with A NEW, MORE REASONABLE REGIME to end our military operations in Iran," he wrote Monday on Truth Social.
On Tuesday, he went a step further by hinting at the end of Operation "Epic Fury." "We're going to be leaving very soon," Donald Trump told reporters. He provided a timeline of two to three weeks—the same horizon he offers on almost every subject, though he doesn't always meet these deadlines.
In any case, he seems to be looking for an exit strategy. Even if Iran does not reach a deal. And even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The White House is well aware that expanding the conflict will only heighten the economic consequences for Americans. On Tuesday, gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 (compared to less than $3 a month ago).
This has led to mounting pressure from public opinion. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, two-thirds of Americans believe the United States should strive to quickly end its involvement in the war in Iran, even if the objectives set by the Trump administration are not met.
These objectives are, in any case, quite vague and seem to shift over time. For instance, Trump initially appeared to want regime change. But despite dozens of officials being killed, the regime remains in place, and the Revolutionary Guard is more in control than ever. Venezuela showed that the US President only needs a regime that is less hostile toward the United States, rather than true regime change.
"If you look closely, there has already been a regime change, because the previous one was decimated, wiped out. They are all dead. The next regime is also almost entirely dead. And for the third regime, we are dealing with different people than any we have known before. It is a totally different group of people. So I consider that a regime change," he explained to reporters Sunday aboard Air Force One.
The New York Times summarized it this way: "Regime change has occurred in Iran. Or not. It is a war aim. Except it isn't." The conclusion one can draw is that the idea that the United States has successfully achieved regime change is highly debatable. But claiming it will likely allow Donald Trump to declare "mission accomplished."
Iran is not the first subject on which Donald Trump has constantly sent mixed messages. It is never quite clear whether this is strategic ambiguity or a lack of strategy. "It is not 3D chess, it is 12-dimensional chess. He contradicts himself regularly, so no one knows what he is thinking. It is intentional," said an administration official quoted by Axios.
