Tech stocks are attempting a rebound after a rough day for chip shares, oil has slipped back below $80 a barrel: investors are treating the emerging U.S.-Iran interim deal as a reason to take some risk again. Traders have found a better problem to focus on, and his name is Kevin Warsh.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, so the decision itself is almost beside the point. The real event is Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair. Markets are not waiting to hear whether rates move. They are waiting to hear what kind of Fed they now have.

Warsh arrives in an awkward place. He was chosen by Trump after criticizing the Fed and arguing in the past for lower rates. But the committee he now leads is not obviously in a cutting mood. Inflation risk has not disappeared, energy prices have been volatile, and some officials are still talking more about possible rate increases than relief.

Today, Warsh has to show that he can satisfy a White House that wants cheaper money without alarming bond investors, who generally prefer their central bankers boring, independent, and allergic to improvisation. It is a narrow lane. The Fed chair's job often looks powerful from the outside, but inside the room, he is still one vote among twelve. The updated projections for inflation, growth, and rates may say as much as Warsh does.

The market, of course, wants the friendliest possible version of him. Investors are hoping he describes the recent energy shock as temporary, avoids sounding eager to raise rates, and leaves open the possibility that borrowing costs could still come down later. 

Oil is helping. Brent crude has fallen to around $79 a barrel, near its lowest level since the first days of the Iran war, after reports that the U.S. would allow Iran to resume selling oil and fuel once the interim agreement is signed. The deal also appears to include steps to ease blockades around the Strait of Hormuz. If energy flows normalize quickly, inflation pressure could ease. The International Energy Agency has even warned that if the peace deal holds, oil supply could grow far faster than demand.

On Wall Street, SpaceX's shares keep rising after last week's IPO and were up again before the open. Swissquote called the surge a red flag for the technology rally, arguing that valuations are reaching the point where they no longer make sense. Intel, Broadcom, and Micron recovered some ground in premarket trading after the PHLX Semiconductor Index suffered its second-worst day of the year. Intel also gave investors something concrete: it said its 18A-P manufacturing process has entered risk production, an important step in its attempt to turn around a business that has been bleeding cash. Wall Street may like Intel's CPUs again, but the larger question is whether Intel can win foundry customers.

Outside tech, the market's tone is mixed. BMW cut guidance because of tougher competition in China and the spillover effects of the Middle East war, sending its shares sharply lower and dragging Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Stellantis with it.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99.565
  • Gold: $4,322
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $78.94 (WTI) $76.20
  • United States 10 years: 4.43%
  • BITCOIN: $64,860

In corporate news:

  • CPP Investments to invest 740 MUSD in India's CtrlS Datacenters.
  • HSBC partners with Google Cloud to expand AI usage.
  • JPMorgan and Google are among firms asked to preserve records in an Epstein ranch investigation.
  • Oracle disputes details in reports of failed Microsoft cloud deal talks, calling them inaccurate.
  • Blue Origin starts rebuilding its launch pad and targets a New Glenn rocket return in 2026.
  • Amazon may face penalties from a potential FTC lawsuit over misleading advertising, according to Bloomberg News.
  • SoftwareOne to offer Claude access via Amazon Bedrock.
  • Meta and TikTok sued by an Italian mother following her daughter's death, amid growing concerns over child safety on social media platforms.
  • JPMorgan Chase to host its second-quarter 2026 earnings call.
  • SpaceX slightly surpassed Amazon's market capitalisation at the close, having risen 49% since its IPO.
  • Intel has begun initial production of its new etching technology.
  • Exxon Mobil has signed a preliminary agreement to supply LNG to South Africa.
  • Mastercard is maintaining its quarterly dividend at USD 0.87 per share, payable on 7 August.
  • AT&T has appointed Jennifer Biry as Chief Financial Officer from 2027, following Pascal Desroches' retirement.
  • Robinhood is cutting 300 jobs, representing 10 per cent of its workforce.
  • Snap is weathering investor pressure by launching its smart glasses.
  • Marathon is restarting the catalytic cracking unit at its Galveston Bay refinery in Texas.
  • SK Hynix denies press reports regarding a shareholder remuneration plan worth 100,000 billion won
  • Tokio Marine is focusing on acquisitions in Australia and Canada to diversify its international revenue streams.
  • BYD is ramping up its battery production in Brazil.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Block, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 61 to USD 86.
  • Resmed, Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 286 to USD 230.
  • Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 38 to USD 36.
  • Applied Materials, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 450 to USD 560.
  • Datadog, Inc.: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 218 to USD 270.
  • Ge Vernova Inc.: Oxcap Analytics maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 587 to USD 817.10.
  • Intel Corporation: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 65 to USD 100.
  • Kla Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 1865 to USD 260.
  • Lam Research Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 305 to USD 420.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 1000 to USD 1500.