While the war in Iran dominates the headlines, White House teams staged a brief event on Monday to promote Donald Trump's tax cuts. Sharon Simmons, an Arkansas native wearing a red "DoorDash Grandma" t-shirt, knocked on the Oval Office door to personally deliver a McDonald's order to Donald Trump. This was followed by an exchange regarding the benefits of the Trump tax cuts. Ms. Simmons stated she had saved $11,000 thanks to these measures.

The United States is currently in the midst of the tax season. This is the period when Americans should be seeing the effects of Donald Trump's tax cuts. In practical terms, this translates into higher tax refunds. According to IRS data, the average tax refund currently stands at $3,462, compared to $3,116 a year ago.

These fiscal incentives stem from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed by Congress last July. The legislation provides for tax cuts on tips, Social Security benefits, overtime pay, auto loan interest, and local taxes.

Tax Cuts Offset at the Pump

However, the event itself illustrates the difficulty this administration and President Trump face in refocusing the narrative on economic achievements. The scene lasted 15 minutes, during which Donald Trump spoke as much about Iran, the Pope, and men in women's sports as he did about tax cuts.

Since the start of the war in Iran, rising prices at the pump have emerged as the primary concern for Americans. The average price of gasoline in the US has exceeded $4 (a gallon), up from under $3 before the conflict began.

This surge in energy prices could partially erase the benefits of the tax cuts. According to economists at the St. Louis Fed, the increase in fuel prices could cost consumers the equivalent of 10% to 50% of the tax relief enacted by Donald Trump for every quarter that gasoline prices remain at current levels.

On Sunday, speaking on Fox News, Donald Trump conceded that US gasoline prices could remain elevated until the midterm elections in November. Indeed, it will take time to restart production in the Middle East, repair damaged infrastructure, and return to pre-conflict supply levels.

Nothing Else in the Pipeline

In the polls, President Trump's approval rating continues to erode as the war in Iran remains highly unpopular. Its consequences only reinforce the top concern for Americans: affordability. This comes after Donald Trump was elected in 2024 by denouncing "Biden's inflation."

Donald Trump's lack of results on this front had already precipitated his decline in the polls and led to Republican defeats in several local elections late last year. The US President subsequently initiated a series of trips aimed at highlighting his economic record.

"I may have a bad PR team, but we aren't getting the message out," Donald Trump admitted on January 20 during a White House press conference.

For Republicans, highlighting tax cuts is all the more critical as it is likely Donald Trump's only remaining ammunition for the midterms. In a Politico article, a Republican member of the House of Representatives summarized it as follows: "it's all we've got for the campaign."