Latest funding rounds indicate a valuation of $175bn for SpaceX, $100bn for OpenAI, and $38bn for Anthropic. Combined, these three companies represent over $313bn in potential market capitalization within a US equity market valued at over 69 trillion dollars, according to Reuters.
None of these three companies are currently profitable, and none are truly on the verge of becoming so either.
SpaceX's 2025 consolidated accounts, which include xAI, show revenue of $18.7bn against CapEx exceeding $20bn and losses nearing $5bn.
For OpenAI and Anthropic, the data is more opaque, but the conclusion remains the same. Despite rapid revenue growth, neither company is yet making money. Both will continue to spend heavily to fine-tune their models, strengthen infrastructure and defend their technological lead.
Their trajectories could, however, diverge. Anthropic remains more focused on high-value enterprise use cases. This positioning could allow it to convert growth into profit more quickly. OpenAI bears the cost of mass-market adoption on a very large scale. This involves products that are expensive to develop, such as image and video, alongside an affordable consumer offering. Indeed, in a few years, we may well look back with nostalgia at the current cost of the AI subscriptions we use.
Recent Precedents
Traditionally, companies go public after demonstrating an ability to generate consistent profits. However, for several years, markets have become accustomed to welcoming loss-making startups, often presented as disruptive players or category leaders.
In such cases, long-term prospects justify the valuation. The market pays for the promise of future dominance and a business model destined to become highly profitable once the investment phase is over.
This wave of IPOs could therefore generate considerable excitement, especially amongst retail investors. It is easy to imagine an initial rally driven by the scarcity of these shares, the companies' reputation and the power of their narrative.
However, the hardest part for shareholders will come later. If investors enter these positions at very high valuation levels, they will need to be patient during periods of doubt. Indeed, it will be interesting to see how much uncertainty the markets can withstand as quarters pass with double-digit growth, coupled with persistent operating losses.
Here are a few examples of the stockmarket performance of companies introduced with high valuations in recent years.
- Uber Technologies: profitable since 2023 - 2027 P/E: 17.4x
- Rivian Automotive: not profitable
- Airbnb: profitable since 2022 - 2027 P/E: 25.1x
- Snowflake: not profitable
- Lemonade: not profitable
- DoorDash: profitable since 2024 - 2027 P/E: 41.4x
These examples share several common traits. At the start of the journey, the market pays for a narrative. Then, it expects a credible path to profit, and finally, it punishes or rewards execution.
The combination of ambitious valuations and net losses is therefore a long-term bet. For an investor, waiting until profitability is reached requires solid conviction. One must be able to navigate periods of doubt and shifts in market sentiment to avoid selling at the wrong time.
Companies Still Hungry for Capital
In the case of SpaceX, upcoming projects leave little room for a rapid normalization of spending. Between Elon Musk's ambition to colonize the Moon and Mars, space-based data centers, and the desire to better control its chip supply, considerable infrastructure investments are to be expected.
OpenAI and Anthropic are at an earlier stage in their IPO preparation. They have not yet filed an S-1 form, the first step towards financial transparency. It is precisely through excerpts of this document, revealed by Reuters, that more is known about SpaceX's finances, its commercial situation, and the risks associated with its development.
Even profitable "hyperscalers" are shaken when the market doubts the return on AI-related spending. While bearing in mind that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are central to what is the most buoyant narrative in recent market history, these stocks would undoubtedly be among the most exposed should these concerns resurface.
Not rushing toward profits and leading a strategy with vision is certainly the right path to building a dominant position. The road is long and fraught with risks, but also opportunities for retail investors wishing to gain exposure to these companies. One must simply remember that to emerge as a winner, a solid investment thesis is required to build a true tolerance for uncertainty.
