By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for Nov. delivery rose 1% to $11.45 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, in response to rumors of China returning to purchasing large volumes of U.S. exports, rumors left unsubstantiated through the day.

--Wheat for Sep. delivery rose 0.6% to $6.04 1/4 a bushel.

--Corn for Sep. delivery rose 0.1% to $4.23 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Potential Catalyst: Grains caught a boost on the possibility of China returning to purchasing U.S. soybean exports, which would inspire hope for farmers regarding export demand for beans. "The market reaction highlights just how sensitive soybean prices remain to any indication of Chinese buying interest," said Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Trading in a note. "However, the distinction between inquiries and purchases is important." These rumors did not get confirmed Tuesday.

Money Moves: For wheat, strength seen in futures throughout the day appeared linked to traders covering their short positions in wheat in favor of opening new long positions in soybeans, said Brian Grete of Commstock Investments. "The soy complex seems like the safest markets for them to hold length," said Grete. Last week's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed a net short position of roughly 80,000 contracts in soft red winter wheat.


INSIGHT


On a Strong Note: U.S. row crops planted this spring seem ready to hit the hottest months of the year in good condition, said Michael Cordonnier of Soybean & Corn Advisor in a note. "I realize it is early in the growing season to make yield adjustments, but without any threatening weather on the horizon, it looks like the crop will enter the critical July period under favorable conditions," said Cordonnier, regarding corn. He raises its yield outlook for corn up 1 bushel an acre to 182 bpa, while soybean yields are seen rising 0.5 bpa to 52.5 bpa.

Building Up Better: The USDA's latest Crop Progress report showed a one-point improvement in corn and soybeans in good or excellent condition -- which was a source of pressure to prices overnight. The USDA says that 68% of U.S. corn is good or excellent, while 66% of soybeans are good or excellent. The weather outlook remains supportive for a strong start to crop growth, meaning large harvests this fall. "Fundamental aid is thin for the grains right now with '26 crops once again developing nicely, and a beneficial extended forecast on tap to get those crops through June without major issues," said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note.

Increasing Inventory: Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week are anticipating an uptick in the amount of ethanol barrels in inventories reported by the EIA in its weekly petroleum report Wednesday. Surveyed analysts expect stocks to land between 24.4 million barrels and 24.8 million barrels, versus 24.45 million barrels reported last week. A majority of analysts said that they expected stocks on the higher-end of forecasts.


AHEAD


--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report at noon ET Thursday.

--The USDA and CBOT will be closed in observance of Juneteenth on Friday, reopening on Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-16-26 1518ET