The ceasefire has been extended, but the broader situation still looks deeply unstable. Reports of attacks on vessels there pushed oil prices back up, with Brent hovering near the psychologically powerful $100-a-barrel mark.

Trump's prolonged ceasefire is not being presented as the first step in a coherent peace strategy so much as a tactical pause while Iran comes up with what he called a "unified proposal." It suggests a White House trying to preserve leverage, contain oil prices, and avoid being dragged into a more dangerous conflict.

Meanwhile, markets found other reasons to be reassured, with Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing to become the next Federal Reserve chair. Yesterday, he said some of the right things about central-bank independence and insisted that Trump had not asked him to pre-commit to rate decisions. For investors, this counted as good news. But there was another moment in the hearing that was seen as a red flag: Warsh refused to acknowledge that Trump lost the 2020 election. It goes to the heart of the strange bargain now being offered to the country: trust me to protect the independence of the Federal Reserve, but do not ask me to display the basic civic independence required to acknowledge a settled democratic fact.

Warsh also made clear that he intends to mark a break from the Fed's recent direction, and he blamed post-pandemic inflation in part on monetary-policy mistakes. Some analysts now expect a Warsh-led Fed to be more dovish than markets currently assume, with the possibility of two rate cuts still in view.

In corporate news, GE Vernova rose after raising its annual revenue forecast. Adobe jumped after authorizing a massive share buyback. United Airlines gained after reporting earnings, even while warning that higher fuel prices would force capacity cuts. ABB raised guidance, while Capital One slipped after its results and T-Mobile drifted lower as strategic questions lingered. Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, Boeing, and AT&T are all part of the day's earnings spotlight.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98.298
  • Gold: $4,757
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $99.01 (WTI) $90.13
  • United States 10 years: 4.29%
  • BITCOIN: $78,155

In corporate news:

  • Meta is facing a class-action lawsuit from the Consumer Federation of America, which alleges the company profited from scam ads on Facebook and Instagram while misleading users about its anti-fraud efforts.
  • Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is reportedly nearing a roughly $10 billion fundraising deal for Project Prometheus at a $38 billion valuation, with demand extending the round and investors said to include JPMorgan and BlackRock.
  • Booking.com is under investigation by Italy's antitrust authority over claims that its preferred hotel programs may mislead users by boosting listings that pay higher commissions rather than those offering better value.
  • Goldman Sachs' alternatives arm invested $50 million in Swiss AI software company BLP Digital, which plans to use the backing to expand headcount and grow in the U.S.
  • Capital One Financial reported first-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue below expectations, sending its shares lower in premarket trading.
  • OpenAI is reportedly preparing to commit up to $1.5 billion to a private-equity-backed joint venture aimed at accelerating adoption of its workplace AI tools.
  • South Korea said its security talks with the U.S. should remain separate from issues tied to the investigation into Coupang over a major customer data leak.
  • Moderna has started a Phase 3 trial in the U.S. and U.K. for its pandemic influenza vaccine candidate mRNA-1018.
  • Uber has made an investment in French hydrogen vehicle company HysetCo, marking its first investment in a French business.
  • Meta Platforms plans to open a more than $1 billion AI data center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and says it will match the facility's electricity use with clean energy additions to the grid.
  • SpaceX said it has secured an option to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion later this year as part of a broader partnership.
  • United Airlines issued a cautious outlook, warning that higher jet fuel prices are pressuring margins and dragging expected second-quarter and full-year profits below Wall Street forecasts.
  • Ford is recalling 140,201 Ranger vehicles in the U.S. because damaged wiring could cause an electrical short and increase fire risk.
  • Microsoft must face a U.K. lawsuit over cloud and software licensing practices, with claimed damages estimated at more than £1.7 billion.
  • Vodafone Business launched new AI and cybersecurity services for small businesses in partnership with Google Cloud, including an AI concierge based on Gemini.
  • HSBC is hiring a JPMorgan executive to lead its global precious metals sales business as competition for bullion-market talent intensifies.
  • Adobe has announced a new $25 billion share buyback programme.
  • New York is suing Coinbase and Gemini, with Robinhood also falling as a result.
  • Netflix is reportedly in talks to buy a historic film studio site in Los Angeles, currently owned by its creditors.
  • Tesla launches a six-seater variant of the Model Y in India.
  • Today's key earnings reports: Tesla, GE Vernova, Philip Morris International, IBM, AT&T, Boeing, Vertiv, CME Group, ServiceNow…

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Abbott Laboratories: Daiwa Securities downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 113 to USD 92.
  • Albemarle Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 188.
  • Biogen Inc.: UBS upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 225.
  • Halliburton Company: Griffin Securities upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 35 to USD 47.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Nxp Semiconductors N.v.: AlphaValue/Baader Europe downgrades to add from buy and raises the target price from USD 272 to USD 282.
  • Prudential Financial, Inc.: Barclays downgrades to underweight from equalweight and reduces the target price from USD 110 to USD 91.
  • Qualcomm, Inc.: Barclays upgrades to underweight from rating suspended with a target price of USD 130.
  • Sba Communications Corporation: Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 193 to USD 247.
  • Steel Dynamics, Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Twilio Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Zebra Technologies Corporation: Zacks downgrades to neutral from outperform and raises the target price from USD 234 to USD 252.
  • Zscaler, Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 200 to USD 155.
  • Alaska Air Group, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 42.50 to USD 55.
  • Apa Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector perform rating and raises the target price from USD 26 to USD 36.
  • Conocophillips: Scotiabank maintains its sector perform rating and raises the target price from USD 100 to USD 125.
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 128 to USD 163.
  • Lyondellbasell Industries N.v.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 77.
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 174 to USD 210.
  • Newmont Corporation: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 115 to USD 140.
  • Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 46 to USD 57.
  • Royal Gold, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 260 to USD 340.
  • Valero Energy Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 178 to USD 226.