Rémy Cointreau Among the Week's Biggest Losers as Diageo's Move Shakes Up the Sector
With weekly losses currently nearing 10%, Rémy Cointreau is set to record one of the steepest declines in the SBF 120 index this week, penalized by the strategic shift initiated two days ago by Diageo, the world leader in the sector.
The British group, owner of Johnnie Walker whisky, Smirnoff vodka, and Guinness beer, rattled the market on Wednesday after unveiling half-year results that fell short of expectations, once again lowering its forecasts, and halving its dividend payout—a cocktail of bad news that wiped more than 12% off its value in a single session on the London Stock Exchange.
By extension, these announcements triggered a wave of distrust toward the sector as a whole, where short-term visibility now appears particularly clouded.
On Wednesday alone, Pernod Ricard plunged nearly 8% and Rémy Cointreau dropped close to 6%.
"The message from the global leader has fueled doubts about the pace of the sector's recovery, especially in North America," comment the teams at EuroLand.
"Investors are also questioning the evolution of consumption habits, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive," adds the brokerage firm.
Paradigm Shift
Industry professionals seem especially focused on the statements made Wednesday by Diageo's new CEO, Sir Dave Lewis, a retail veteran who made it clear his intention is to focus above all on "the customer, the customer, the customer."
These remarks have sparked speculation about a renewed price war—a scenario that would see spirits companies slash their prices after years of premiumization.
In a note on Rémy Cointreau published earlier this month, analysts at TP ICAP Midcap had already expressed concern over this "paradigm shift," predicting an end to the "premiumization" trend that has buoyed the sector for many years.
"After a decade of 'value over volume'—premiumization, premium pricing, secondary volumes—Rémy Cointreau is preparing to pivot toward a market share and asset turnover strategy," noted Sarah Thirion following the presentation of quarterly results marked by price cuts at Hennessy and plummeting volumes.
Over the week as a whole, Rémy Cointreau's stock is currently down 9.5%, Pernod Ricard has fallen 10%, and Diageo is off 11.6%.
Rémy Cointreau is one of the world's leading producers and distributors of cognac, spirits and liqueurs. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- cognac (62.1%): Rémy Martin and LOUIS XIII brands;
- liqueurs and spirits (35.8%): liqueur (Cointreau), rum (Mount Gay), brandy (Saint Rémy and Metaxa), single malt whiskies (Bruichladdich, Port Charlotte, Octomore, Westland and Domaine des Hautes Glaces).
The remaining net sales (2.1%) concern the distribution of third-party products.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (2%), Europe/Middle East/Africa (21%), Asia/Pacific (40.1%) and Americas (36.9%).
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