Redeye has assigned a new motivated value of SEK 1.7 to environmental technology company Scandinavian Enviro under its base scenario. This is revealed in a commissioned analysis that also includes updated estimates.

The new valuation for Enviro has been delayed. Redeye initially aimed to present the updated estimates this summer, but for various reasons, this did not materialize.

Now, the firm has released new estimates, described as "more realistic" given that previous projections were likely overly optimistic and primarily based on outdated corporate communications and early joint venture targets.

In light of this, Redeye has revised its view on the capacity of the Uddevalla facility: "Our previous assumptions estimated 960,000 tons by 2030. Our new estimates reflect 140,000 tons by 2030 and 700,000 tons by 2035. We believe the joint venture company's target of recycling 1 million tons by 2030, announced in March 2023, is too ambitious to be reached by that time."

The outlook for long-term profitability in terms of the EBITDA margin for 2030 has been reduced from 64 percent to 55 percent, and for the final (terminal) EBITDA margin from approximately 45 percent to 30 percent.

"The reason for our reduced margins is that we believe there is significant uncertainty regarding the future profitability of the facilities," Redeye writes.