Yet the real suspense isn’t even this meeting: it's who replaces Jerome Powell. Betting markets and whisper networks all say Kevin Hassett, and this apparently has the power to nudge Treasury yields higher. Investors may not know who'll steer policy next year, but yields are already screaming "NOT HIM!" like teenagers watching the horror movie "It".
The Fed is not the only central bank complicating traders' holiday plans. Japan's central bank has hinted at a potential rate hike, words that instantly rattled global bonds and sparked talk of an unwinding of the yen carry trade. A strong auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds calmed nerves, but only slightly. Should Japanese yields continue to rise, billions may flow back home, pulling liquidity from risk assets around the world. Global finance is interconnected in the same way Christmas lights are: one bad bulb ruins everyone's night.
Bitcoin has been the market's favourite roller coaster, and this week it plunged again, falling more than 6% on Monday, its biggest one-day drop since March. From early October's high above $126,000, bitcoin now hovers around $85,000, a 30% fall that dragged down crypto stocks such as Coinbase and Strategy.
Big tech continues its quiet war over artificial intelligence talent. Apple is reshuffling its AI division and poaching a Microsoft executive while preparing for the retirement of its top AI leader. OpenAI, meanwhile, has declared a "code red" to improve ChatGPT, delaying other products to focus on speed, reliability and personalization. Credo Technology swung to a profit thanks to AI-related demand. MongoDB, also buoyed by AI, lifted its annual guidance and saw its stock price jump nearly 20%.
The OECD has revised upward its U.S. growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing AI investment, fiscal support and possible Fed cuts. But it also warns that higher tariffs will bite next year, slowing both the U.S. and global economies. The U.S., it says, will grow 2% this year, 1.7% next year, and 1.9% in 2027. Resilient, but not roaring.
Not all uncertainty comes from markets. A peculiar diplomatic subplot has emerged: special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, son-in-law to U.S. President Donald Trump, are expected to meet Vladimir Putin to explore potential paths to ending the war in Ukraine. In Europe, this fuels anxieties about NATO's future.
Elsewhere on the agenda, cybersecurity specialist CrowdStrike is in the spotlight after Wall Street's close, reporting Q3 results for its off-cycle fiscal year. And as I haven't mentioned a record in the past 24 hours, note that silver flirted with USD 59 an ounce during yesterday's session - a new high, bringing its 2025 gains to over 100%. The precious metal has eased slightly this morning but continues to outshine gold, which is up a mere 61% year-to-date.
In Asia-Pacific, markets are somewhat mixed. Japan is flat, while South Korea gained 2% following confirmation from the United States of tariff reductions for the country. Mainland China, Hong Kong, and India saw moderate declines. Australia fared better, adding 0.2%. European futures are slightly up, while US futures are pointing to a rebound.
Today's economic highlights:
On today's agenda: the Eurozone's CPI and unemployment rate; in the United States, the JOLTS job openings will be released. See the full calendar here.
- Dollar index: 99,422
- Gold: $4,205
- Crude Oil (BRENT): $62.95 (WTI) $59.16
- United States 10 years: 4.07%
- BITCOIN: $87,297
In corporate news:
- Akamai partnered with Zuplo to help AccuWeather accelerate API monetization through a new API gateway.
- Coinbase Global reported delays in sends and receives on the Optimism network, but other transactions remain unaffected.
- Merck & Co filed for a $7.5 billion, seven-part notes offering, including $500 million in floating rate notes due 2029.
- Amazon is slashing seller fees in Europe to compete with Shein and Temu, reducing referral and fulfillment fees for cheaper fashion and household items.
- The Ensign Group announced an expansion of its operations in Arizona.
- CME Group reported its second-highest monthly trading volume ever, with an average daily volume of 33.1 million contracts in November.
- Apple can be sued in Dutch courts for antitrust damages related to App Store practices, following a ruling by the EU's top court. It also plans to resist an Indian government order to preload a state-run cyber safety app on its phones, citing privacy and security concerns.
- BlackRock turned bearish on long-term U.S. Treasuries, citing rising AI-related debt as a risk to borrowing costs and system leverage.
- Tesla saw a 9.9% year-over-year increase in China-made EV sales in November, the biggest jump in 14 months.
- Citigroup will relocate most of its lead metal stocks from Singapore to Malaysia and Taiwan at an estimated cost of $5 million.
- Germany's antitrust authority is reviewing Apple's updated app tracking rules for competition compliance after the company proposed neutral consent mechanisms.
- Exxon Mobil is in talks with Iraq to buy Lukoil's stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield as the Russian firm divests international assets.
- Global Payments received EU approval for its $22.7 billion acquisition of Worldpay, with no competition concerns identified.
- Momenta, a Chinese autonomous driving company backed by Toyota and Bosch, has filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO.
- Arthur J. Gallagher acquired First Actuarial, though terms of the deal were not disclosed.
- Marvell Technology is in advanced talks to acquire Celestial AI in a multi-billion-dollar cash-and-stock deal.
- OpenAI took a stake in Thrive Holdings as part of a partnership to bring AI to traditional industries like accounting and IT services.
- Intel announced a $208 million investment to expand its assembly and testing operations in Malaysia, reinforcing its $7 billion commitment made in 2021.
- Netflix submits predominantly cash acquisition offer for Warner Bros. Discovery.
- Nvidia invests $2 billion in Synopsys for AI integration in chip-design, amidst concerns about circular financing.
Analyst Recommendations:
- Albemarle Corporation: Baird upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 81 to USD 113.
- Darling Ingredients Inc.: TD Cowen upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 34 to USD 45.
- Dexcom, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt with a price target raised from USD 63 to USD 75.
- Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and raises the target price from USD 105 to USD 130.
- Solventum Corporation: BTIG upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 100.
- Symbotic Inc.: Goldman Sachs downgrades to sell from neutral with a target price of USD 47.
- T-Mobile Us, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to market weight from underweight.
- Teradyne, Inc.: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 162 to USD 225.
- Alphabet Inc.: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 380.
- Applied Materials, Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 170 to USD 265.
- Baxter International Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 19 to USD 15.
- Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 165 to USD 220.
- Globus Medical, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 70 to USD 100.
- Micron Technology, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 200 to USD 300.
- Mongodb, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 335 to USD 500.
- Yeti Holdings, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 36 to USD 44.
