In a research note covering the two in-vitro diagnostics specialists, the Canadian investment bank expressed a more bullish outlook on the Italian firm compared to its French counterpart.
The bank anticipates that the first quarter of 2026 will be the weakest of the year for both groups, with sales expected to accelerate in the second half as headwinds subside and new product launches begin to contribute to growth.
Analysts noted that both stocks have seen significant pullbacks over the past twelve months, with bioMérieux down 18% and Diasorin sliding 33%. Consequently, both companies are currently trading below their historical premiums relative to their peers.
Regarding Diasorin specifically, RBC Capital reiterated the group's 2026 targets: sales growth between 5% and 6% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32% to 33% at constant exchange rates. This outlook for flat-to-declining margins year-on-year reflects product mix dilution, launch-related investments, price annualization, and the ongoing impact of centralized procurement in China.
Meanwhile, bioMérieux is targeting organic sales growth of 5% to 7% and recurring operating income growth of at least 10%. These projections account for a weaker microbiology outlook in China and a broad guidance range for Biofire respiratory sales.
For the first quarter, analysts expect Diasorin's sales to decline by 1% at constant exchange rates, with the adjusted EBITDA margin projected to contract by approximately 400 basis points to 30.6%. These forecasts factor in weather-related volume weakness in North America, a milder flu season, and challenging year-on-year comparisons for licensed technologies. Sales growth is expected to recover to 4% in the second quarter before reaching 9% in the second half of the year.
For bioMérieux, first-quarter revenue growth at constant exchange rates is projected at 2%, before hitting the annual target range of +5% to +7% starting in the second quarter. This initial sluggishness is attributed to tough comparisons in molecular biology and persistent headwinds in the Chinese microbiology market.
RBC Capital maintained its Outperform rating on Diasorin but lowered its price target from 95 to 75 euros. For bioMérieux, the Sector Perform rating remains unchanged, with the price target adjusted from 115 to 100 euros.
bioMérieux designs, develops, produces, and sells systems used in clinical practice to diagnose infectious diseases (including HIV, tuberculosis, and respiratory infections), cancers, and cardiovascular pathologies based on a biological sample (blood, saliva, urine, etc.). Net sales break down by sector of application as follows:
- medical applications (84.3%): in industry, microbiological testing of samples from finished products, materials during the manufacturing process, or the environment, primarily in the food-processing, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics sectors;
- industrial applications (15.7%).
The group's diagnostic systems consist of three elements with related services: reagents, instruments (or platforms or analyzers), software, and services.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe/Middle East /Africa (32.3%), North America (45.4%), Asia/Pacific (15.6%), and Latin America (6.7%).
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