According to a Reuters survey of analysts and portfolio managers, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index could gain 11% to reach 623 points, after a similar rise of 11.9% in 2025. European equities, seen as less exposed to a potential correction linked to artificial intelligence, could prove more resilient than their US counterparts. The start of the year was marked by a rebound triggered by the end of Germany's debt brake and mounting trade tensions between Europe and the United States, driven by President Donald Trump. The result: positive momentum in Europe that held up throughout the year, in contrast to the United States, where the stockmarket rally only really began in the second half.
The persistent undervaluation of European stocks compared with US companies further boosts the appeal of the Old Continent. "The valuation gap has reached record levels," notes Kevin Thozet, a member of Carmignac's investment committee, who expects a gradual catch-up as economic trajectories converge. The EuroStoxx 50 index could climb to 5,900 points by the end of 2026, up 6.7%, before reaching 5,955 points by mid-2027. Germany's Dax is forecast at 25,500 points (+9.7%), lifted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's rearmament and infrastructure stimulus ambitions. In France, the CAC 40 could gain 8% to reach 8,600 points, despite uncertainties linked to the political stalemate.
Wall Street powered by tech, but vulnerable to inflation
The S&P 500 is expected to reach 7,490 points at the end of 2026 (+11.7%), according to the Reuters survey. Evercore ISI is even forecasting a peak of 7,750 points. The momentum is underpinned by solid corporate results, with earnings growth estimated at 14.3% for 2026, largely thanks to AI technologies. But this trajectory is threatened by a possible resurgence of inflation and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Eight out of fourteen experts consider a correction in the next three months likely. Finally, the return of Donald Trump and the anticipated trade tensions are set to weigh on the 2026 outlook as the midterm elections approach. Regarding the Dow Jones, it could reach 50,566 points, up from 47,112 points at present.
This time last year, strategists were expecting the S&P 500 to end the year at 6,500 points. The broad US index is currently 5% above this level. In this scenario, professionals would probably rather have been wrong than be proven right and face a sharp drop in December. In Europe, the same survey expected the Stoxx Europe 600 at 536 points at the end of 2025. The European index is currently trading around 574 points, about 7% higher.
