Oddo BHF maintains its 'Neutral' recommendation on Pernod Ricard shares, with a target price lowered from €100 to €95.
We expect Q1 25/26 sales to be down 14.6% (vs. -14% previously), including -5.8% organic growth (vs. -5% previously), the broker said, which anticipates a 15% organic decline in sales in the US, a "sharp deterioration" due to "ongoing destocking" weighing on sales.
The broker also mentions China, with an expected organic decline of 35% in a context of "continued difficult consumption" and an unfavorable phasing effect.
Finally, the note indicates a revision of EPS of -3.3% linked to the "update of currency effects" on EBIT, which justifies the adjustment of the target to €95.
Pernod Ricard is the world's No. 1 in the production and marketing of Premium and Prestige spirits and wines. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- spirits and champagnes of strategic international brands (61.3%): Absolut (12.3 million cases sold in 2024/25), Jameson (11.2 million), Ballantine's (9.1 million), Chivas Regal (4.8 million), Ricard (4.2 million), Malibu (4.1 million), Beefeater (3.3 million), Havana Club (3.3 million), Martell (1.9 million), The Glenlivet (1.4 million), Perrier-Jouet (0.3 million) and Royal Salute (0.2 million);
- local strategic brands' spirits (18.4%): Seagram's, Kahlua, Olmeca, Seagram's Gin, Ramazzotti, Imperial, and Pastis 51 brands, etc.;
- speciality brand's craft spirits (7.3%): Italicus, Lillet, Pernod, Suze, Augier, Malfy, Jefferson's, Powers and Redbreast brands, etc.;
- strategic wines (4%): Jacob's Creek, Kenwood, Brancott Estate, Campo Viejo, Church Road, George, St Hugo, Stoneleigh, Ysios and Wyndham brands;
- other (9%).
At the end of June 2025, the group has 94 production sites worldwide.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe (28.9%), Americas (28.8%) and other (42.3%).
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