On the stock market, inflation pushes Oracle off the front page.

Yesterday's surge in Oracle shares in New York did not rekindle optimism on Wall Street, where investors remain cautious ahead of the August US inflation report due later today. This is the last key data point that could challenge expectations of a rate cut by the Fed next week. In Europe, the ECB is set to leave monetary policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting this afternoon. These two events will dominate attention today.

Contrary to expectations, yesterday’s spectacular surge in Oracle shares failed to lift the broader U.S. market. The S&P 500 gained just 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 was nearly flat (+0.04%), and the Dow Jones slipped 0.48%, dragged down by tech across the board - except for Nvidia. Oracle, which is not included in the Dow or Nasdaq, skyrocketed 36% in a single session, a staggering move that highlights the current FOMO driving AI-linked stocks.

 

That gain added $242 billion to Oracle’s market capitalization, taking it from $680 billion to $922 billion in just 24 hours—nearly the value of Novartis or L’Oréal. The company stunned investors late Tuesday with confirmation that its AI exposure is both real and accelerating, backed by enormous new orders. The rally even briefly propelled founder Larry Ellison ahead of Elon Musk in the global wealth rankings.

 

But the frenzy didn’t spread. Apple dropped 3% after unveiling new products lacking meaningful AI features, with more attention paid to a new iPhone color than the devices themselves. Across Europe, indexes mostly declined, though the CAC 40 edged up 0.15% for no clear reason.

 

For now, investors are turning their attention to today’s U.S. inflation report (8:30 a.m. ET). It is the final data point likely to influence the Fed ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Traders overwhelmingly expect a 25 bp cut (92% probability), with only 8% pricing in 50 bp. Consensus forecasts call for 2.9% annual inflation and 3.1% core. Meanwhile, at 8:15 a.m. ET, the ECB announce its own rate decision, widely expected to leave its deposit rate at 2% and refinancing rate at 2.15%, alongside updated macro projections.

In Asia-Pacific this morning, the mood remains bullish in Japan (+0.6%), mainland China, and Taiwan. Gains are more fragile in South Korea and India, while Hong Kong and Australia are posting slight declines. There is an understandable wait-and-see attitude ahead of the US statistics, which will be decisive for the future of the stock market. 

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Germany's producer price index, the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates, the consumer price index, new jobless claims, and the federal budget balance in the United States. See the full agenda here.

• Dollar index: 97,67
• Gold: $3,635
• Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.17 (WTI) $62.36
• United States 10 years: 4.051%
• BITCOIN: $113,765

In corporate news:

• Alibaba – The Chinese e-commerce group announced Thursday its plan to raise $3.2 billion through the sale of a zero-coupon convertible bond to finance international expansion and strengthen its cloud business.
  
• Boeing – Boeing Defense and the machinists’ union reached a tentative agreement to end a five-week strike in the St. Louis, Missouri region, union officials said Wednesday.
  
• Chipotle Mexican Grill – The company plans to expand into Asia next year by opening restaurants in South Korea and Singapore, extending its global presence as U.S. consumer spending on dining out weakens.
  
• Coupang – The South Korean e-commerce firm on Wednesday won dismissal of a lawsuit accusing it of defrauding shareholders during and after its 2021 New York IPO.
  
• Grabagun – The firearms retailer, backed by Donald Trump Jr., rose 3%.
  
• Hubbell – The electrical equipment maker announced Wednesday that its CFO, Bill Sperry, will step down and be replaced by Joseph Capozzoli effective January 1, 2026.
  
• Jpmorgan Chase – The bank is accelerating hiring in its corporate banking division across the Asia-Pacific region and aims to increase staff by 20% next year as part of its regional growth strategy, senior executives told Reuters.
  
• Netflix – The company announced Wednesday that Eunice Kim, chief product officer since 2023, will leave, with chief technology officer Elizabeth Stone assuming the role on an interim basis.
  
• Oracle – The stock gained another 1.6% in premarket trading after soaring 36% Wednesday, its biggest one-day percentage increase since 1992, driven by surging demand from artificial intelligence companies for its cloud services.
  
• Outdoor Holding – The firearms company gained 3.3%.
  
• Potbelly – RaceTrac agreed Wednesday to buy the sandwich chain for about $566 million, an unusual move for a convenience store operator.
  
• Smith & Wesson Brands – The firearms manufacturer rose 4.7%.
  
• Starbucks – Carlyle Group and EQT, alongside HongShan Capital Group and Boyu Capital, are preparing final offers to acquire a majority stake in Starbucks’ China operations, five sources close to the matter said.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Affirm Holdings: Truist Securities maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $72 to $95.
  
• Atlassian: Guggenheim initiates coverage with a buy rating and a price target of $225.
  
• AutoZone: Barclays maintains its overweight rating and raises the price target from $3,916 to $4,510.
  
• AvalonBay Communities: Truist Securities upgrades from hold to buy but lowers the price target from $224 to $218.
  
• Carnival: Argus Research Company maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $30 to $40.
  
• Cencora: Argus Research Company maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $330 to $340.
  
• Chewy: Deutsche Bank upgrades from hold to buy with a price target raised from $38 to $45.
  
• Comfort Systems USA: William Blair maintains its outperform rating.
  
• Core & Main: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral rating and lowers the price target from $68 to $60.
  
• Coterra Energy: Raymond James maintains its outperform rating and lowers the price target from $38 to $34.
  
• DraftKings: MoffettNathanson LLC maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $58 to $60.
  
• Eaton: Argus Research Company maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $385 to $400.
  
• EMCOR Group: William Blair maintains its outperform rating.
  
• Exact Sciences: Craig-Hallum maintains its buy rating and raises the price target from $65 to $85.
  
• FedEx: Melius Research LLC maintains its buy rating and lowers the price target from $275 to $270.
  
• GitLab: Guggenheim initiates coverage with a buy rating and a price target of $70.
  
• Lululemon Athletica: HSBC downgrades from buy to hold and lowers the price target from $275 to $175.
  
• Nvidia: D.A. Davidson upgrades from neutral to buy with a raised price target from $195 to $210.
  
• Oracle: CITIC Securities Co. Ltd maintains its hold rating and raises the price target from $200 to $298.
  
• Reddit: William O’Neil & Co. Incorporated maintains its buy rating.
  
• Thermo Fisher Scientific: Barclays upgrades from equal weight to overweight and raises the price target from $490 to $550.