At the same time last year, in these very pages, MarketScreener hailed this $13bn all-stock deal: the shares were then trading at historically high multiples, which its chairman John Wren cleverly took advantage of.
The market, for now, is greeting the combination rather skeptically, seeing it as a largely defensive move against the technology giants that now capture most advertisers' ad budgets.
We wrote last year that, based on the 10x EBITDA multiple that had largely defined the valuation of both Omnicom and Interpublic throughout the last decade, the new entity could plausibly command a market value around $40bn.
It is far from that for now, as its current enterprise value is half as much. Beyond competition from the technology giants, Omnicom, a bit like Adobe, is also seen as a loser from AI. On this topic see, Adobe defies forecasts and secures another blockbuster year.
If the group loses its role as an intermediary between advertisers and media at the same time as its creative added value, what remains? That, in essence, is what investors fear.
In the meantime, John Wren remains true to his unbending style. He continues to slash headcount, and is already promising to exceed the cost-saving targets announced ahead of the Interpublic purchase. The group will in fact cut 4,000 jobs in the coming months, following the 10,000 job cuts combined at Omnicom and IPG since 2024.
In this respect, the consensus currently points to operating profit before amortization - or EBITDA - of $4.5bn next year. The current enterprise value therefore represents a multiple of only 4x expected operating profit in 2026.
Omnicom had been valued on such a low basis only once: in the first half of 2009, in the middle of the subprime crisis.
