Oil Below $90 a Barrel After Trump Cancels Iran Strikes -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 1.2% to $89.36 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 3.1% at 48.15 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.8% at $13,688 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 2.5% at $4,215.10 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Oil Below $90 a Barrel After Trump Cancels Iran Strikes

Oil prices fell below the $90-a-barrel mark on Friday after President Trump called off strikes on Iran and said a peace deal could be reached within days, the latest twist in a volatile week for crude markets.

In midmorning European trade, Brent dropped 4% to $86.69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures were down 4.1% to $84.15 a barrel. Both benchmarks are headed for weekly losses of around 9%.

"The price action in oil markets is no surprise," said Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodities strategists at ING. "However, in the absence of a deal, this is unlikely to last."

OTHER STORIES:

Woodside Energy to Buy PetroChina's Stake in Browse LNG Project

SYDNEY--Woodside Energy said it would exercise a right to buy PetroChina's 10.67% stake in the joint venture that owns the Browse natural-gas project, effectively scuttling the Chinese company's planned sale of the shareholding to Japan's Inpex.

Woodside said on Friday that its interest in the Browse JV would rise to 41.27% when the deal completes.

MARKET TALKS:

China's Oil Reserves Could Sustain Lower Crude Imports Into 2027, Capital Economics Says -- Market Talk

1406 GMT - China's ample oil inventories suggest Beijing can continue importing less crude into 2027 without significantly disrupting domestic supply, says David Oxley from Capital Economics. Recent trade data show that crude imports in May were roughly 100 million barrels below the average monthly levels seen in 2023-24, according to the firm, while estimated strategic and commercial oil stocks amount to around 1 billion-1.5 billion barrels. "Even assuming that China is only able to draw upon half of its estimated stocks, it could feasibly maintain the status quo for another 5-8 months or so--and potentially longer if the apparent falls in fuel consumption continue," the economist says. ([e-mail])

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Gold Down More Than 2.5% on U.S.-Iran Deal Hopes -- Market Talk

1338 GMT - Gold prices extend gains in afternoon trading on hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran. "The drop in U.S. Treasury yields is weighing on the U.S. dollar somewhat, as rate hike expectations for the Fed have been pushed back on the hope that a U.S.-Iran deal is around the corner," says Raffi Boyadjian, market analyst at brokerage XM. "A 25-bps [basis points] rate increase is now not fully priced in until March 2027." Gold futures in New York rose 2.7% to $4,445.20 a troy ounce, though they remain on track for a weekly loss of 6% as risks of escalation in the conflict and U.S. consumer price data weighed heavily on bullion this week. ([e-mail])

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Oil Extends Losses on Chances for U.S.-Iran Deal

0908 ET - Oil futures extend their decline with the market giving more weight to expectations of a U.S.-Iran deal being finalized than the likelihood of negotiations running into more obstacles, although Iranian state media cite officials saying Tehran hasn't reached a final decision. Crude is trading at the lower end of its recent range and is likely to hold there as the proposal reportedly calls for 30 days for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully reopened, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. "Keep in mind that global stockpiles remain relatively low and will take time to rebuild, which should provide underlying support for prices." WTI is down 2.7% at $85.39 a barrel and Brent is off 2.3% at $88.30. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Lower Amid Weaker Crude Oil -- Market Talk

1028 GMT - Palm oil ended lower amid a drop in crude oil prices on hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal soon. Both Brent and WTI crude oil futures fell more than 4% late afternoon in Asia. Weaker crude oil prices make biodiesel less attractive, weighing on palm oil prices. Markets will closely monitor the looming El Niño, as various global meteorological authorities expect it to officially begin in mid-to-late June, Tongguan Jinyuan Futures says in a research note. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier weather to the region, which could affect palm oil production, though the brokerage notes that the impact is often delayed. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery fell 72 ringgit to 4,479 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Oil Drops Below $90 Amid Hopes of U.S.-Iran Deal

0857 GMT - Crude oil futures fall below $90 a barrel after President Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran, signaling a potential deal could come as soon as the weekend, say Societe Generale strategists in a note. Oil prices had been climbing this week amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where a conflict has effectively closed the crucial Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of the world's oil is typically transported. In particular, Brent prices are trading below $90 a barrel for the first time since the latter half of April, they add. Front-month Brent crude-oil futures fall 4.3% to $86.52 a barrel, while front-month West Texas Intermediate futures fall 4.3% to $83.91 a barrel. ([e-mail])

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Oil Extends Decline Amid Hopes of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

0855 GMT - Market hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal get a further lift in the Asian afternoon session as fresh headlines signaled progress in negotiations. Mehr News Agency, which is affiliated with Iranian security services, reports that major parts of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement have been finalized, citing the country's Foreign Ministry spokesman. Oil extends declines, gold erases losses and U.S stock futures are higher. Front-month Brent crude oil futures fall 4.3% to $86.50 a barrel, and front-month WTI crude futures are 4.5% lower at $83.76 a barrel. Gold is last up 0.1% at $4,216.34 a troy ounce. The eMini Nasdaq 100 futures rises 0.2%, the eMini S&P 500 futures gains 0.3% and the eMini Dow futures is 0.6% higher. ([e-mail])

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European Steel Producers See Positive Outlook Next Year -- Market Talk

0826 GMT - European steel traders' inventory levels are elevated and demand is muted, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. While steel distributors don't feel the need to restock given availability, producers are optimistic, the analysts say. This is because European Union steel-trade safeguards start in July, and support higher domestic production to displace imports from the final quarter of 2026 onward, they add. The outlook for European steel for 2027 and 2028 is structurally better compared to the past, strengthened by these policy-driven headwinds. ([e-mail])

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Gold Up 2% As Trump Cancels Iran Strikes, but Remains on Track for Weekly Loss -- Market Talk

0713 GMT - Gold prices rise more than 2% after President Trump's decision to call off strikes against Iran pushed crude below $90 a barrel and boosted investor risk appetite. "With oil prices coming down sharply, alongside hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, that's seen investors price out the chance of rapid rate hikes this year," analysts at Deutsche Bank say. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 2.1% to $4,200.40 a troy ounce. Despite the rebound, the metal remains on track for a weekly loss of nearly 7%. The precious metal has been under pressure due to stronger fears that rising energy costs could spur inflation, ?prompting central banks to keep interest rates higher and raising the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Falls Amid Weak Demand -- Market Talk

0257 GMT - Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trading amid weak demand. China's infrastructure and manufacturing investments fell sharply on month in May, weighing on steel demand, China Galaxy Futures says in a research note. While overseas demand remains relatively resilient, overall demand for steel is still lower than 2023-2025 levels, it notes. As iron ore prices return to a periodical low, inflation and liquidity may affect the ferrous metal's price movements in the near term, it adds. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falls 0.2% to 765.0 yuan a ton. ([e-mail])

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Copper Rises After U.S. Calls Off Strikes on Iran -- Market Talk

0136 GMT - Copper rises in early Asian trade, as the conflict in the Middle East continues to affect market sentiment. Base metals rebounded from lower levels after the U.S. called off planned strikes against Iran overnight, prompting traders to look at rebalancing their positions, Nanhua Futures analysts say in commentary. Supply issues have also tightened the market, with traders growing increasingly concerned about the availability of copper concentrate, ANZ Research analysts say. Still, higher energy prices are fueling worries of higher inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. In particular, U.S. consumer prices, which rose at the fastest pace in more than three years last month, is a key overhang for investors, ANZ adds. The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange is trading 1.0% higher at $13,614.50 a ton. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-12-26 1032ET